Approximately, as we don’t have direct observations on items solely related to AI.
Figure 1: Imports of computers, computer peripherals, plus semiconductors (blue, left log scale), investment in information equipment, and software (red, right log scale), both in billions Ch.2017$ SAAR. Source: BEA 2026Q2 advance release.
The sums of components are simple arithmetic; this is not appropriate if the relative price of the series have channged. To be more accurate, one should use a Tvornquist approximation. In the last year, computer and peripherals import prices have risen about 15% faster than software, while information equipment prices have risen about 8% faster than software. Over a longer span, simple addition would distort the picture somewhat, maybe less in the short term. There is an additional question about the accuracy of the deflators.
Further note the increase in summed imports masks a sharp divergence between equipment and semiconductors; the latter jumped enormously, while equipment dropped slightly.
My estimate of nominal imports was about$700 billion (SAAR) for Q2, based on April and May imports. The advance estimates is $730 billion, suggesting the BEA’s internal estimate for June was slightly higher than thepreliminary May figure.
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