One of the explanations for the “new normal” in employment growth is not deficient aggregate demand, but deficient labor force growth. The NYT article “Employers Fear Labor Shortage as Many Immigrants Lose Protected Status” lays it out:
… on Monday, about 350,000 T.P.S. recipients from Haiti and several other countries will lose their work permits in the first wave of fallout from the Supreme Court ruling. About 190,000 Salvadoran beneficiaries could be next to lose their status when it expires in September.
“For particular places and particular industries, tens of thousands of workers no longer able to legally work is going to be a very big hit,” said Alexander Arnon, the director of policy analysis at the Penn Wharton Budget Model, a nonpartisan research organization that has analyzed the economic impacts of T.P.S. workers.
This is on top of the crackdown on migrants the administration has been pursuing. Heavily affected by these measures would be health care/social services and construction. The former has been a main constituent of employment growth over the last year.
Figure 1: Change since 2025M01 in total nonfarm payroll (NFP) employment (bold black line), hoealth care and social services employment (salmon bar), construction (green bar), rest of NFP (blue bar), all in 000’s, s.a. Source: BLS and author’s calculations.
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