Wall Street Expectations for Treasury Yields: Higher for Longer

From the October WSJ survey:

Figure 1: Ten year Treasury yields (black), October WSJ survey mean (blue square), July WSJ survey mean (light green triangles), all in %. Source: Treasury via FRED, WSJ.

A mix of improving growth, new inflationary pressures and concerns about the U.S. fiscal trajectory have pushed bond yields higher since the start of the summer. Many economists said the cocktail has forced them to re-evaluate their assumptions about investors’ demand for Treasurys, whose yields rise when their prices fall.

The low prediction for December 2027 is 3.95%, high is 5.63% (the indomitable James Smith, and Allen Sinai, respectively).