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Yesterday’s narrative dominance by the American commentariat held today, but just barely, amidst diplomatic rudeness from Rubio, more Trump nuclear brinksmanship, harsh criticism of Kpler’s oil accounting, a bizarre incident on a Dubai-Tel Aviv flight, what seems like an obvious false flag in the UK, strong pushback via Iranian and Ansar Allah missiles, American military withdrawal from Iraq, heartbreaking reporting on the Minab massacre, and massive explosions in Damascus.
Let’s start with the narrative wars.
Talk of Negotiations Continuing Continues With “Feedback” Delivered in Doha
Despite (contested) reports that US Secretary of State Marco Rubio evicted the Iranian delegation from New York a day early, a non-Iranian official briefed on the talks says Qatari mediators gave Araghchi the US feedback in Doha Tuesday 29 Sep, on his way home from New York; the document describes “a seven-day period of trust-building” leading back to “an enhanced version” of the June MoU, “including concrete steps on Iran’s nuclear program”; the dispute is over “sequencing,” not the components.
This contrasts with IRGC spokesman Mohebbi saying the only way war will end is if U.S. admits defeat, and since POTUS Trump is babbling about having “decisions to make”… “we blow them up, we make a deal, but the time is coming,” and “it will end very soon one way or the other,” it seems unlikely America will have a return to clarity anytime soon.
If you’re wondering who is filling Trump’s head with visions of nuclear annihilation, Ken Klippenstein reports it’s Undersecretary of Defense War Elbridge Colby.
Colby has been talking like this since 2011:
“The United States should maintain the assured ability to conduct a devastating, effectively annihilating strike against any opponent even after an attempt by that opponent to disarm the United States through a first strike of its own,” Colby said. The forces held back for retaliation, he added, should be able to “destroy the attacking country as a functioning society.”
So that’s reassuring.
For their part, China is calling on the US to return to June’s MOU (aka the surrender document), they’re also cancelling exports of refined product. I guess they haven’t gotten the Kpler report yet.
Iranian analyst Esfandyar Batmanghelidj gave six reasons why Iran isn’t panicking, even as he concedes that more oil is flowing through the Strait than earlier in the conflict.
- The Iranian economy is more integrated into regional economies than people realize.
- There is the importance of maintaining a functional relationship with the UAE.
- There is a direct relationship between Gulf fiscal space and Iran’s post-war recovery.
- They need to keep China on side, especially as the war moves into a true attritional state.
- Iran needs to be wary of Russia. If Gulf oil volumes remain depressed for too long, China would replace Gulf barrels with Russian barrels.
- Iran can afford to fight an attritional war. But it wants to avoid a return to the most intense levels of fighting, when Trump was threatening to destroy Iranian power plants and Iran was threatening to hit similar targets across the Gulf.
Iran is claiming that the US has pulled its warships 500KM away from the Strait, the better to escort tankers with, I guess.
Will Schryver has catalogued the current locations of the US carrier fleet:
⚓️ United States Navy Carrier Fleet Status pic.twitter.com/2xR4XduhZN
— Will Schryver (@imetatronink) September 30, 2026
And because Team America is so obviously the Good Guys (TM) in this conflict, let’s see some of the unhinged madness coming from the savage “Death to America” crowd:
⚡️Press TV’s powerful AI-generated video has gone viral across social media within hours, racking up millions of views.
Here’s another look at the emotional video, which offers a different perspective on the walkout by delegations during Netanyahu’s UNGA speech. pic.twitter.com/hc1NzcaCmB
— Press TV 🔻 (@PressTV) September 30, 2026
Fortunately, Elon “Free Speech” Musk is keeping the Twitter throttle on tight.
If the Spice is Flowing, Why Are Diesel Prices So Stubbornly Spicy?
Sadly, some freedom haters insist on amplifying the deranged rantings of the Farsi-speaking devils:
On Breaking Points this morning we talked about how Treasury yields and oil prices moving in lockstep were proving an old Ghalibaf post correct. Then a few hours later he posted this one. I think he’s doing the month free premium so he gets the show early and ad free. https://t.co/WaMurSQV6b
— Ryan Grim (@ryangrim) October 1, 2026
How could anyone doubt US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent when the charts speak for themselves:
This didn’t take long—US diesel prices now at a fresh all-time high above $224/bbl!
acute squeeze into today’s contract expiry https://t.co/02SW3v8AIz pic.twitter.com/Xa6O6gFv89
— Rory Johnston (@Rory_Johnston) September 30, 2026
Even the FT is getting in on the treason, reporting that “US oil industry warns diesel prices will not return to normal for a year.”
Ok, ok, the sarcasm is getting tiresome, even to me. Forgive me, this kind of theological debate is even more tedious, as Simplicius observed:
The widening epistemological discrepancies of this “war of paradoxes” over the Schrodinger’s Straits have now simply become an issue of faith based on which side’s gospel you more devoutly subscribe to.
Karl Miller has explained why the crude situation improving doesn’t solve the diesel shortage.
From Unz Review:
…as Karl W. Miller shows in his latest assessment, dated September 29, the shock from the Gulf hits the world’s fuel supply twice: it starves refineries abroad of crude and removes finished fuel from the Gulf’s own refineries. America has no spare diesel to offer a world that has lost 1.6 million barrels a day of diesel exports from the Gulf and Russia combined. Until finished-fuel supply recovers, the gap will be closed by higher prices, less economic activity, or both.
Larry Johnson also summarized Miller’s report:
The problem, he stresses, is not money. The Gulf states have capital. What they cannot buy on demand are replacement machinery, specialist crews, secure transport and stable operating conditions.
…
The most important distinction in the report is between crude and finished products. A rebound in crude exports does not mean usable fuel is returning. Hormuz product exports excluding LPG were reported at about 1 million b/d on September 11, against about 4 million before the war, a gap of roughly 75%. Across the wider Gulf, product exports including LPG fell by nearly 60% in August. Net exports of diesel and gasoil in August were just 390,000 b/d, a little more than a quarter of their prewar level. Whether a crude cargo becomes diesel or jet fuel where it is needed depends on refinery condition, crude compatibility, product specifications and delivery routes.…
Miller describes the shuttle system now moving Gulf crude. Tankers load inside the Gulf, make the exposed passage through Hormuz, and transfer their cargo to ocean-going ships in the Gulf of Oman. Large ships are doing much of this work: in one week in late September, 17 of 19 outbound crude tankers were supertankers carrying roughly 2 million barrels each.
His warning is about counting. A 2-million-barrel cargo recorded at loading, again at the strait and again at the offshore transfer is still 2 million barrels, not 6 million. And the system is slow. A 2-million-barrel shuttle completing a full cycle in 20 days supplies just 100,000 b/d, so moving 1 million b/d takes ten such ships working perfectly, plus the onward fleet. A 30-day cycle requires fifteen.
It is grimly amusing that OilPrice is reporting that the views of JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs are “diverging” when they’re both more optimistic than….Scott Bessent. I’ll have what they’re snorting.
Forgive me, I’ll wrap the narrative wars with Dario Capodici’s rebuttal of one of Kpler’s many market-moving claims:
Well, well, well… It looks like the Saudi E-W pipeline is still shut down
This means all Kepler & Co. “independent assumptions” on crude oil flows go down the toilet, and all we read in the past weeks was a massive and effective disinformation campaign pic.twitter.com/1UjovUwb22
— JustDario (@DarioCpx) October 1, 2026
And another:
According to Kepler these were all successful Hormuz crossings https://t.co/lPhEv0ngJG
— JustDario (@DarioCpx) September 30, 2026
Now let’s move on to Wednesday morning’s WTF? incident on the flydubai flight to Tel Aviv.
Who Gave the Co-Pilot a Box Cutter?
The day began with news of an attempted hijacking of a flydubai plane full of Israelis headed from Dubai to Tel Aviv, forcing a landing in Saudi Arabia. Via Times of Israel:
The Omani pilot who allegedly tried to crash a flydubai plane full of Israeli passengers earlier today is described by a fellow pilot as a religious extremist.
The pilot tells Israel’s Channel 16 news that the Omani national joined flydubai just eight months ago.
“He prayed excessively throughout the day and refused to shake hands with women,” the pilot tells the network.
After being stabbed and seriously wounded by his Omani copilot, the Indian captain of the flydubai flight managed to click open the cockpit door in what allowed several Israelis to burst in and subdue the attacker, a spokesperson for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu reveals.
Off-duty flydubai pilots who were sitting in passenger seats were then able to conduct a safe emergency landing in Saudi Arabia.
What an inspiring tale of heroism in the face of evil “religious extremism.”
And while we’re talking about heroes and villains, let’s jaunt up to the UK.
Five Arrested in UK “Iranian Bomb Plot”
MI6’s favorite left-leaning British daily reported on a counter-terrorism investigation of alleged Iranian involvement in a suspected bomb plot at an RAF base used by the US to bomb bomb bomb Iran. Tuesday, the FT reported that one of the suspects called 999 shortly before his arrest. MSN added that the police found “petrol, not explosives.”
Regardless, UK PM Burnham told the BBC “strong indications” pointed to Iran. His Defense Secretary bravely vowed that Britain wouldn’t be “cowed by sabre-rattling from Iran.” Bibi claimed he warned the Brits. Trump said the bad guys “wanted to do big damage.” Little Marco Rubio piled on, saying the incident “clearly involves the hands of a foreign actor.”
Final proof came when the fiendish Iranians denied the charges.
Despite such iron-clad evidence, the hardened cynics at WSWS.org cast doubt on the tale:
…events over the following days saw revelations that threw a question mark over heavy suggestions of Iranian involvement, and even over whether there was any terror incident to be involved in.
…from the night the arrests took place the police’s own actions and the official statements of both the police and the UK government were blowing holes in the narrative presented by the US government.
The initial report was that a farmer had encountered three white vans blocking a road near Fairford. Having turned around, she says she saw a large group of hooded and masked men (more than five) near a junction. They dispersed after seeing her.
The woman attempted to contact the Ministry of Defence Police, receiving no answer, before calling Gloucestershire police on 999 at 1:36 a.m. to report suspicious activity.
Armed police supported by a helicopter arrived 10 minutes later, arresting five men 300 metres from the Fairford perimeter. The local area was declared the scene of a major incident, with over 80 households evacuated while army bomb disposal personnel examined the three vans using robots.
Later that day, British police and intelligence sources suggested that the specific activities of the arrested men were not necessarily known to the authorities, as Trump’s remarks implied. However, Counter Terror Police took over the investigation, stating that they were investigating whether those involved “might have been acting knowingly or unknowingly on behalf of a foreign state”.
The official position of the emergency government Cobra meetings held Sunday and Monday was that the investigation was live but it was too early to establish attribution.
At 4 p.m. on Monday, police then made the extraordinary announcement that all five men would be released on police bail, under stringent conditions but without charge. Terror suspects can be held for up to 14 days. The action was described as an “investigative” decision “grounded in experience and careful considerations of policing powers”.
This confirmed that no physical evidence of a bomb plot had been found.
Case closed, amirite?
Will Schryver dismissed the whole concoction, saying, “The embarrassingly pitiful British cannot even concoct and pull off a proper false-flag attack these days.”
Has it really been so long since the heady days of the Steele Dossier and Skripal?
Alright, time to get kino (that means “kinetic” for those confused by my use of my pet neologism).
Missiles Fly, Some to Destinations Denied or Unknown, Some Clearly Hit the Mark
There were rumors and reports of Iranian missiles flying, but not much of it panned out, the stuff that did was a couple days old:
- JFeed reported sirens near US bases in Jordan Wednesday afternoon. Israel’s Channel 14 reported a missile launch from Shiraz. Tasnim denied it, first in Hebrew, then in English.
- MoloWarMonitor reported IRGC anti-ship ballistic missile launches toward the Strait of Hormuz. Half an hour later, no explosions had been heard in the northern UAE or on Qeshm Island.
- UKMTO reported three tankers attacked in the Strait on Tuesday, disclosed a day later (gCaptain). A maritime security firm named them as the Mersin Prosperity, Sinbad and Al Ruwais (Riviera). Fars said Iran fired “warning shots” (Maritime Executive).
- IRGC spokesman Brig. Gen. Hossein Mohebbi said Iranian forces “took action” against ships and the US didn’t respond (Press TV).
Ansar Allah’s agit-prop game was active today:
Extinguishing the Fires Is Not Yemen’s Job. It Is the Job of Those Who Started Them.
The fires raging across Saudi oil fields are not a natural disaster. They are not an accident. They are the direct, predictable, and inevitable consequence of a war that Saudi Arabia started, a… https://t.co/gOCZgPgqLu pic.twitter.com/uT3ooodPCv
— Aprajita Nafs Nefes 🦋 Ancient Believer (@aprajitanefes) September 30, 2026
And they claimed ground advances as well.
🚨BREAKING: The Yemeni Armed Forces Have Just Liberated More Territory From Saudi-proxy Militias
Dhiab, Jabal Al-Mansoura, Jabal Al-Barha, Jabal Lasbah, and Jabal Hawab in Lahij Governorate have all been secured under the control of the Ansarallah-led government in Sana’a. pic.twitter.com/Y8ysmY4x8Y
— MintPress News (@MintPressNews) September 30, 2026
O God, help the mujahideen.
The advance continues, and the Saudi mercenaries are being driven out from the northern and eastern outskirts of Taiz. Liberating Taiz will be a great victory and a crushing defeat for Saudi Arabia. pic.twitter.com/WI7I7LDKpo
— Oday (@o_d__ay) October 1, 2026
Enough Houthi advancing, America did some retreating.
Pulling Out of Iraq After 23 Years
Al Jazeera reports that the US military withdrawal from Iraq is complete.
Simplicius commented:
In some ways it is merely a symbolic move at this point, given that the US is still fully entrenched in the Middle East with bases throughout the region, so the occasion is really more a milestone for Iraq and its own national sovereignty, rather than a momentous geopolitical juncture. It evokes the end of an era, a post-9/11 political and dare I say spiritual zeitgeist that closes another in a long line of bloody chapters of American imperialism.
One can even argue that Iraq had served its purpose. One of the real reasons for the persistence of the phony “Inherent Resolve” mission was to use ISIS as a cover for waging war on Syria’s Assad.
B from Moon of Alabama pointed out that the move is “little more than symbolic” as long as the US controls Iraq’s finances and Turkish troops remain in the Kurdish areas.
Meanwhile, America’s February massacre at the girls’ school in Minab is getting some alt-media attention.
Jeremy Scahill Does the Lord’s Work
Scahill reports for Drop Site that, “the bombing of an Iranian school, killing 120 children, is one of the worst U.S. war crimes since Vietnam. Drop Site spoke to survivors, first responders, parents, and witnesses.”
He was featured on Breaking Points:
Let’s wrap with a brand new tragedy.
Massive Explosions in Damascus
DPA reported that:
An explosion in a gas pipeline south of the Syrian capital Damascus on Wednesday evening forced several power generation plants out of service, the Syrian Electricity Company said.
The company said the Deir Ali, Nasiriyah and Tishreen power plants were taken offline after an explosion occurred on a gas pipeline at the Tishreen plant, disrupting the gas supplies needed to operate the facilities.
Some video:
BREAKING: Absolutely MASSIVE explosion just now at the Damascus Airport, reportedly caused by a gas pipeline blast.
This has been cross-validated by multiple reliable OSINT accounts.
Syria has had a curious number of “accidents” recently… https://t.co/iJidpx0ifu
— Brett Erickson (@BrettErickson28) September 30, 2026
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