As of today’s close:
Figure 1: Odds of Strait of Hormuz reopening by July 1, % (black, left scale); five year Treasury-TIPS spread, % (red, right scale), and DKW estimated five year expected inflation rate, % (pink, right scale). Source: Kalshi, Treasury via FRED, Federal Reserve Board, and author’s calculations.
It’s true that the real price of oil is lower than in past episodes of oil price jumps.…
An estimated $10 million is being spent in a single Kentucky Congressional primary (Trump says, ‘Get Massie!’) even…
Headline, Core PPI above BLoomberg consensus (1.4% vs. 0.5% m/m; 1.0% vs. 0.3% m/m). Figure 1: CPI-all urban…
Yves here. This sighting from Andrew Korybko describes one of the many ways Russia is securing its position,…
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