As of today’s close:
Figure 1: Odds of Strait of Hormuz reopening by July 1, % (black, left scale); five year Treasury-TIPS spread, % (red, right scale), and DKW estimated five year expected inflation rate, % (pink, right scale). Source: Kalshi, Treasury via FRED, Federal Reserve Board, and author’s calculations.
In 2025, about half of observed consumption, according to Bigot and Espic (BdF): Source: Bigot and Espic (2026).…
Earlier this month OpenAI CEO Sam Altman suggested that the US government take a 5% ownership stake in…
Yves here. Perhaps readers will beg to differ, but I found this study to be maddening. It makes…
Conor here: Suppose the size of the missing ice is fitting considering the way France itself is baking…
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