GDP growth nowcasted as solid; nowcasted “core GDP” goes gangbusters. Advance release to be discussed by Jim tomorrow…
Figure 1: GDP (bold black), GDPNow of 10/38 (light blue square), NY Fed nowcast of 10/23 (inverted red triangle), EconVitals nowcast of 10/28 (green +), WSJ mean survey (blue line), all in bn.Ch.2017$ SAAR, calculated by iterating nowcasted growth on 2026Q2 3rd release. Source: BEA, 2026Q2 3rd release, Atlanta Fed, NY Fed, WSJ October survey, EconVitals, and author’s calculations.
Recall, GDP’s calculation deducts imports since GDP is the sum of all domestic production. Jason Furman, among others, have focused on final sales to private domestic purchasers (with the moniker “core GDP”) as a trend measure of aggregate demand. This measure is nowcasted by the Atlanta Fed to continue to grow rapidly, 4.7% (q/q AR), compared to 4.6% in Q2.
Figure 2: Final sales to private domestic purchasers (bold black), and GDPNow nowcast (light blue square), both in bn.Ch.2017$ SAAR, calculated by iterating nowcasted growth on 2026Q2 3rd release. Source: BEA, 2026Q2 3rd release, Atlanta Fed, NY Fed, WSJ October survey, EconVitals, and author’s calculations.
Consumption is nowcasted to grow 3.3% q/q AR, while equipment investment to grow 20.9% (compare against 13.4% in Q2).
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