although they over-estimated in 2023-24.
Figure 1: Actual year-on-year CPI inflation (bold black), lagged expectations from U.Mich. Survey of Consumers (red), [median] from NY Fed (brown), [mean] from Cleveland Fed Survey of Firms Inflation Expectations (SoFIE) (light blue +), all in %. NBER defined peak-to-trough recession dates shaded gray. Source: BLS, U.Mich via FRED, NY Fed, Cleveland Fed, NBER and author’s calculations.
We’ve had a record low in the U.Michigan consumer sentiment in May (prel.). Given real aggregate output measures…
As of close today, nominal yields are up 0.62%, real up 0.38% since the beginning of the war.…
Dear gentle readers: Apologies for a somewhat ragged Coffee Break today. Traveling in Scotland and time has been…
Both strongly beat consensus. From the Fed’s G.17 Release today: Figure 1: NFP employment (bold blue), civilian employment with…
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