Dear patient readers,
Your humble blogger did not want to compete with a fine Iran conflict background article from Reality-Based Analysis we are publishing today with an Iran war post, particularly since the new news on that front is not overwhelming. So please see the Iran war section for updates.
However, it seemed important to call out gross but sadly typical market-soothing spin in the US media, of the standout development, that of Iran and Oman reaching an interim agreement of Strait of Hormuz operation. First, the landing pages of PressTV:
From the article, Iran details temporary Hormuz arrangement with Oman; vows reopening tied to fulfillment of demands:
Iran’s deputy foreign minister for legal and international affairs details a temporary arrangement between the Islamic Republic and Oman concerning the Strait of Hormuz, while asserting that reopening of the waterway hinges on realization of Tehran’s demands.
Remarking on Tuesday, Kazem Gharibabadi detailed the arrangement that he identified as tentative pending establishment of a “permanent route” during further negotiations between the two sides that are expected to take between 30 and 60 days…
Tehran has conditioned reopening of the waterway on realization of a number of prerequisites, including cessation of American interference in regional maritime traffic.
According to Gharibabadi, under the arrangement involving Iran and Oman, the southern route of the Strait of Hormuz will be closed. As part of its violations of the MoU, the US would try to illegally escort vessels through the southern route that runs along the Omani coastline.
Oman has accepted the closure, the official said, adding that the move would be communicated to the International Maritime Organization (IMO).
Under the arrangement, “vessels entering the Persian Gulf will use Iranian waters, while vessels leaving the Persian Gulf will use Omani territorial waters,” the senior diplomat stated. “Vessels would pass through Iranian waters in both directions,” he added.
Iran has been clear and consistent that there will be no “opening” of the Strait of Hormuz until its requirements are met.
So it would seem Iran now has Oman’s permission to block transits on the Oman side. We had speculated that Iran had been tolerating some level of transits on that side so as not to violate Omani sovereignity while both sides were negotiating. We will see if that interpretation is correct since Iran now said, in response to Bessent’s new killer Schrodinger’s sanctions, that it would halt all passage through the Strait of Hormuz. Keep in mind that this would also be consistent with Iran’s aim of increasing economic pressure on Trump in the runup to the midterms.
See what Bloomberg would have you believe about the Iran announcement:
From the body of the story:
- Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and his Omani counterpart Badr Albusaidi discussed an “interim framework” aimed at resuming shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
- The initiative seeks to establish a “temporary joint maritime corridor” and project for mine clearance to restore safe navigation through the area.
- Iran and Oman will hold further talks to “negotiate a new permanent route” for shipping through the vital waterway, according to Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi.
The article does mention that Trump had said all mines had been cleared and that claim was viewed with skepticism. You have to get well into the article to find any mention that any end to the Strait of Hormuz traffic strangulation depends on the US accepting and acting on Iran’s requirements:
But there were indications Tuesday that the negotiations could incorporate other nations in the region. The joint statement from Iran and Oman said that both sides “emphasized the importance of holding joint talks with regional countries bordering the waters of the Persian Gulf” as the months-long discussions continue. And Albusaidi, in a social media post, said that discussions with regional partners “will be conducted in support of peace and cooperation, stability and freedom of navigation.”…
Tehran says a return to talks hinges on Washington honoring the terms of the deal, accusing the US of breaching the agreement by encouraging ships to use alternative routes that undermine Iranian authority over the strait…
“It’s definitely a baby step in the right direction, but the US reaction and coordination will be important in understanding how serious it is,” said Anna Jacobs, a non-resident fellow at the Arab Gulf States Institute.
Even though the mainstream media is the very big sinner on the accuracy front, it is frustrating to see how often bad takes are propagated on YouTube, particularly when they come from anti-imperialists too willing to take up preliminary information or rumors that suit their priors. One is the idea that the countries in the Mecca Accords have asked Iran to join. They have not. They have agreed to have tea and cookies conversations. The Cradle put a correction at the top of their initial report, but I see too many flogging the inflated early version. Second, too much has been made of statements by President Pezeshkian and chief negotiator Ghalivaf which are presented as proving that the Iran economy is hurting and they see a deal as the only way out. Professor Marandi addressed these depictions first, saying they were cheery-picked and the full remarks of each gave a different picture. Nima later said on the same issue that the reports of internal splits are greatly exaggerated and the Iranian leadership is unified on the goal, which includes getting the US out of West Asia.
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