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Dear patient readers,
In Nat’s Iran War post on Thursday, many commenters weighed in, including to opine that the quality of comments had decayed of late.
I apologize for turning over that feature to Nat during the fundraiser. My intent was to free up time to thanks more donors personally. I have only somewhat succeeded in that aim. I have had a blindsiding development with my health insurer Cigna which has both taken a lot of time and been emotionally draining. This has also occurred as the fundraiser is falling short of the pace needed for us to hit our 2027 targets. I hope I have not made a misjudgement and wound up undercutting the fundraiser. Please, if you have not had the time to donate yet, go to the Tip Jar now and give generously!
Back to the comments/content issues. Reader Expat2Uruguay noted that the comments quality had declined, to the degree that she did not find them to be terribly informative. We certainly are not at the extremely high and insightful as we had early in the Iran war. Some of that is likely due to fatigue with an attritional war as well as some dropping out for a while due to personal demands such as travel (but we do seem to have lost raspberry jam; her e-mail address, with a personal domain name, is no longer working).
Covering the Iran war, which many of you have said you have appreciated keenly, has become more difficult as the US fog-making has increased and the Iran side has gone from being highly reliable to less so. On top of that, Trump’s success in manipulating paper oil markets has wrong-footed some top energy analysts who pay attention to fundamentals. Trump’s ongoing gaslighting and shows of extreme aggression are now well in the Groundhog Day terrain, which is designed to and has had some success in drowning out analysis and commentary.
On top of that, many commentators who have favored the Iran side (if nothing else by virtue of being anti-genocide, ani-imperialism, and/or anti-Trump) have become frustrated with some inexplicable-seeming Iran responses, like not attacking US naval vessels when it seems to be able to do so, or letting more oil transit, and have taken to trying to force-fit evidence into their priors, or worse, ad-hominem attacks on sources that don’t hew to their views. On the transit issue specifically, Trita Parsi had a good talk with Mario Nawfal in which that topic came up. Parsi, who recall has very good contacts on the Iran side and with the negotiators, said more oil was being allowed to pass. He would have treated that as contested or exaggerated if anyone on the Iran side were disputing that in a serious way. Parsi did point out that the US was exaggerating the amount getting out by citing figures on peak days, when passage on other days would be much lower. He added this operation is taking place at great cost to the US, implying it can’t be sustained for all that long.
And we have not been all that excited about the argument over how much oil is actually transiting. Even if you take the numbers from private sector sources deemed to be shills, it’s still markedly below pre-war levels. The world will have to engage in a combination of drawing down more on badly shrunken inventories and using less (which means recessions). This is still an energy starvation diet. If you need 2000 calories a day to survive, you will starve if limited to 500 or 1000 calories a day. It just happens more slowly on 1000 calories a day.
But wars are not won with narratives. They are won with logistics, armaments, force discipline and size, and in the case of Iran, a geography which makes it extremely conquest-resistant. Narratives can, however, serve to keep a losing or disadvantaged combatant in the game beyond what ought to be his quit date, resulting in higher cost to both him and his opponent.
There is more and more evidence of US depletion becoming even more extreme despite the Administration bluster. Brandon Weichert discussed with Karen Kwaitkowski and others that the US moving in another aircraft carrier and more ground forces may be a rotation and not a bulking up. Trump has notably failed to deliver on a key threat of tanker-for-tanker destruction.
On the energy side, one reason for Iran being more measured than it logically should be may be the result of actions on other energy fronts. Putin had just announced there will be no more diesel exports until sanctions are lifted. China has halted energy exports when its refiners have been described as the only meaningful remaining global spare capacity. US refiners have scheduled, as in contracted-for maintenance coming, so US output looks destined to drop off even if there are no mishaps like a Gulf hurricane or a big outage. The successful US pressure to get the EU to tap into its diesel reserves is yet another band-aid over a gunshot wound.
Finally, one reader argued we should not be covering Iran but finance. However, this is neither the runup to the crisis, where there was a lot of data about certain parts of the equation, like reset terms on subprime mortgages, and and active and expert econoblogsphere ferreting out more, nor is this a Cyprus banking or Greek bailout crisis, where a lot could be divined from negotiation dynamics, regulatory matters, and fundamentals. The action now is in private debt and even journalists who have put shoulder to wheel (as in have done a lot of interviews) have admitted they have not gotten very far. One indictor: look at the absolutely enormous it has taken for Ed Zitron to reach some conclusions about the economics of the big AI players.
Cat food investigation finds heavy metals, pesticides and plastic chemicals CNN (Kevin W)
Against Anti-intellectualism Aporia (Micael T)
Modern Architecture Has a Beauty Problem Architectural Tradition (Micael T)
Beware of the Meeting Minutes JSTOR (Micael T)
You Are No Longer Invited to Dinner Derek Thompson (Micael T). Important.
Climate/Environment
Heatwaves, wildfires expose a third of world to extreme ozone pollution France24
World’s oceans absorbed record heat equal to 40 times annual global energy use Guardian
Polar oceans transformed as warming melts ice habitats Phys.org
Antarctica’s ice loss is locked in, and extra snowfall won’t save it – that’s bad news for low‑lying coastal areas elsewhere The Conversation
Mass Heat Wave Deaths in Europe Show Climate Extremes Are Outpacing Adaptation Efforts Inside Climate News
Bali Records 123-Day Rain-Free Streak as El Nino Extends Dry Spell Jakarta Globe
China?
How Far Can the Debate over “One Country, Two Systems” Go? Pekinology
Japanese companies cut China presence to record low Traders Union
Philippines sends largest ship, aircraft to drive away Chinese vessel in waters near Taiwan Jakarta Post
India
Modi’s India takes on Trump more openly, from ‘terrorism’ to tariffs Aljazeera
From Farmers to Shopowners, India Counts the Cost of a Brutal Monsoon Bloomberg
Africa
Tunisia’s food, water shortages overshadow economic growth Anadolou Agency
Ethiopia and Eritrea cut diplomatic ties as northern conflict escalates BBC
Somali families face renewed violence amid worsening hunger crisis UN
O Canada
Trump’s trade rep sounds pessimistic about deal with Canada, saying issues are ‘quite difficult to resolve’ CBC
Carney pitches oil pipeline as a response to US-Canada trade war BBC
South of the Border
Viruses run rampant across Havana as water, power fails Reuters
Venezuela Joins US, Israel in Durban Commemoration Boycott Venezuelanalysis (Robin K)
‘It’s utter surrealism’: Venezuela’s Chavistas lament government’s embrace of Trump Guardian
Haiti struggles with rise in kidnappings as general election looms Independent
How Oil and Trump Are Escalating the Falklands Dispute Time
Trump Closes US Embassy in Brasil & Issues Security Alert to Americans Mike Elk
EXCLUSIVO: PF e Abin emitem alerta para tentativa de golpe após Trump fechar embaixada no Brasil Forum
European Disunion
Sky-high energy costs fuel inflation pain across Europe Daily Sabah
How to get removed from the EU sanctions list – two real-life case studies Nachdenkseiten via machine translation (Micael T)
Teacher doused in petrol and schools set on fire as student riots in France dramatically escalate Independent
Old Blighty
New English homes in flood-risk areas could become uninsurable, says Aviva boss Guardian
Food boss whistleblowers accuse boards of climate change ‘quick fixes’ The Grocer
Beware the private school con Spectator (resilc)
Israel v. The Resistance
Lapid says young Israelis told him ‘even babies’ in Gaza should be killed Middle East Eye
How a foul smell spreading across Gaza revives scrutiny of Israeli ‘skunk’ spray Arab News
CNN getting its revenge for being frozen out by Trump in defiance of court order. Conor had a similar tweet yesterday but this is MSM:
🇮🇱🇦🇪 Aaron Murphy, a commercial pilot and flight instructor proved that the Flydubai story presented by Netanyahu is impossible, raising suspicions of another Israeli false flag operation.
Sitting down in a flight simulator recreating the Flydubai FZ1073 incident so viewers can…
— Megatron (@Megatron_ron) October 2, 2026
Iran War
US signs $24.4bn contract to ramp up missile production as Iran conflict drains stockpiles Arab News
US sanctions Iran’s major auto and rail firms in latest pressure 7 News (Israel)
Iran’s Bitterness and Bewilderment Over How to Make Peace with Trump New Yorker. Robin K: “They pretty much follow the neocon narrative, but in svelte tones suitable for the cocktails and canapés set.”
Iranian Oil Starts Flowing to Tajikistan Despite U.S. Sanctions Risk OilPrice
TRUMP READIES FOR IRAN INVASION, SENDS TROOPS, AIRCRAFT CARRIER, AIR DEFENSE – w/ Trita Parsi Mario Nawfal
* * * Saudi-led coalition accuses Houthis of striking Medina power station France24
Syraqistan
Syria denies officials held ‘secret’ talks with Hezbollah in Turkiye Aljazeera
New Not-So-Cold War
Kiev In Panic as Russian Drones Begin Severing Main-Bridge Cables Simplicius
Ukraine persists with Russian oil refinery strikes in defiance of Trump Guardian
Europe braces for ‘severe hybrid attacks’ from Russia, says Friedrich Merz Financial Times
Russia to Sharply Increase War Spending and Cut Social Programs New York Times
Ukraine rolls out drone-stopping razor fence to thwart attacks New Scientist
In apparent reversal, Trump says he’s sending 5,000 troops to Poland ABC
Estonia bans transit of Russian and Belarusian grain UkrAgroConsult
Will Kaliningrad Be The Spark That Ignites A Nuclear War? w/ John Helmer Dimitri Lascaris, YouTube
Imperial Collapse Watch
America Wants to Make More Generic Drugs. India Shows Why That’s Hard. New York Times. America was once able to to things that were hard…
Christa Pike in critical condition after surviving two lethal injections, lawyer says BBC
Economy
President Vladimir Putin said on Thursday that Russia will not supply its diesel to global energy markets until sanctions against Moscow are lifted. AOL
LNG Shipments Through Hormuz Hit Highest Level Since Iran War Began OilPrice
I forewarned that the US refineries were not going to be able to skip fall maintenance (look at refinery runs while skipping spring maintenance)
PBF Energy just announce they were going down for 30-35 days on planned maintence.
This is their 165K bpd refinery in New Jersey.…
— Tracy Shuchart (𝒞𝒽𝒾 ) (@chigrl) October 1, 2026
World food prices near four-year high in September, UN says Reuters
Private Sector Employers Created 46,000 Jobs, Governments Shed 17,000 Jobs Wolf Richter
Mr. Market is Chewing His Knuckes
The AI boom is pushing bond yields higher in ways that go beyond corporate borrowing, ING says Business Insider
France Is Ground Zero in the Global Bond Rout Wall Street Journal
Bank of England warns of looming debt crisis Telegraph
AI
Uber fired 3,300 people to invest in AI. This is the AI. Reddit (Micael T)
Anthropic IPO: “This is a dog of a company” | Ed Zitron Tech Report
Understanding the AI That Drives Robots Construction Physics (Micael T)
The Appeal of (Semi-?) Biological Naturalism about Consciousness Eric Schwitzgebel (Micael T)
AI is stoked about gang r*pe Bess Kalb (Micael T)
The Bezzle
The End of Private Equity’s Leveraged Buyout Era Is Nigh Bloomberg (Micael T)
KKR, a leading U.S. investment firm, warns about the growing pile of AI debt Globe and Mail
He Sold Americans a Disorder That Didn’t Exist Scott Carney and Kqti – The Healing Delusion (Micael T). Lordie, I’ve heard this pitch….which I did ignore.
Class Warfare
‘It’s just cruel’: US households hit by surge in electricity shutoffs amid record hot summer Guardian
Perceived Importance of College Hits New Low Gallup
Antidote du jour (via):
And a bonus:
Crows so excited to show their favourite human their tree, hopping ahead and looking back to check they’re following, because they know their featherless friend can’t keep up if they fly. pic.twitter.com/z6go2rWlmP
— Science girl (@sciencegirl) September 14, 2026
See yesterday’s Links and Antidote du Jour here.
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