[Today’s Iran war post launched just shy of complete because I had to run out. Please return at 7:30 AM EDT or refresh this page then for a final version]
Don’t be fooled. The news on the Iran war has retreated a bit from front pages due to a pause in kinetic action between the US and Iran. As most of you know, the Trump again threatened to launch ferocious new attacks on Iran, but held back, with many sources reporting that the Pentagon was opposed due to the sorry state of US precision weapons supplies. Note that this site, relying on expert reports, has been saying for some time that depleted US munitions would limit how much more the US could do to punish Iran, ex nukes.
Keep in mind the US has not withdrawn forces and was up to this weekend past, widely reported to be bringing more men and materiel in, with what some claimed to be a high proportion of the entire US fleet of KC-135 refueling tankers.1 Despite two days of no exchanges of strikes, nothing important has changed. Iran is still in control of the Strait of Hormuz. The US still has its blockade on. The US is not withdrawing military assets. The renewal of hostilities between Ansar Allah and the Saudis does not look like it will end any time soon, which translates into more choking of energy supplies from the Middle East. Trump as before pretends the US and Iran talking, when Foreign Minister Araghchi effectively said amounts to the mere exchange of messages through mediators. On July 25, Hormuz Report on Twitter suggested that Iran was waiting for oil price pressure to become undeniable before it even entertained discussions:
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BREAKING: A source close to Iran’s chief negotiator says Tehran has rejected three U.S. backed ceasefire proposals this week, delivered through Qatar, Iraq, and Pakistan — which reportedly angered Donald Trump and pushed him to announce a massive strike on Iran, according to Iranian outlets.
The source suggests Iran is waiting for U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve levels to drop critically low, expected by mid-August, and for oil to hit around $120 a barrel before considering any deal and and eventually, Donald Trump would have to accept Iran’s terms, meaning TACO.
As we will soon discuss, Iran and Oman are discussing management of the Strait of Hormuz, but the two sides are at odds on fundamental issues, so hope on this front is misplaced.
However, despite the fact that Trump is encountering Stein’s Law, “If something cannot continue, it will stop,” regarding the US ability to continue to prosecute the war, Iran is making a point of not offering any face-saving gimmicks to grease Trump’s exit. They are out to humiliate the US as part of their power projection and to increase the perceived costs of messing with Iran so as to deter future US administrations. But reader Ben Panga, who has had far too much experience with extreme narcissists like Trump, argues that they fear humiliation more than death. Thus any hope of a US retreat will depend not on Trump2 but on factions of the bureaucracy refusing to implement his directives. We pointed out even before this war that one possible way out of Trump misrule was a soft military coup via refusing the orders of the civilian leadership.
Also keep in mind that Netanyahu will be in Washington from Monday to Wednesday, and will be meeting with Trump. Netanyahu said he was pushing back an earlier trip to attend Lindsay Graham’s wake. I can’t find any evidence that such a wake is being held but his funeral will begin on July 28 in Washington DC.3 Given that Trump will be surrounded by a kettle of hawks, and will be reminded ad nauseam that supporting Israel and attacking Iran were the “accomplishments” he was most proud of, he may be talked again into kinetic measures. The Trump team has shown a willingness to engage in desperate measures, such as saying it could run the Strategic Petroleum Reserve down to 70 million barrels, which seems likely to result in the collapse of at least some of the salt caverns.
On another front of sorts, Ukraine attacked an Iran-flagged commercial ship in the Caspian Sea. Iran bristled back. We’ll unpack soon why this confrontation seems unlikely to go all that much further.
Trump Denies Reports of Weapons Shortages
As we said earlier,4 there was ample coverage that the US had limited military means as far as the precision munitions were concerned. But when you’ve lost the Zionist CBS News….
This July 23 story, Rapid pace of interceptor and precision-guided weapons use worries Trump administration, kicked up a media firestorm. Key bits:
The rapid pace at which the U.S. is expending some of its most advanced air-defense interceptors and precision-guided weapons in the Middle East is a point of great tension inside the Trump administration…. And it’s raising broader concerns about America’s readiness for a potential conflict in the Indo-Pacific.
The dwindling stockpiles of defensive interceptors and long-range missiles have become a pressure point for top military and civilian leaders who are weighing the demands of the war with Iran against maintaining readiness to deter other adversaries, including China.
The U.S. officials, who spoke to CBS News on condition of anonymity given the sensitivity of the topic, said the U.S. cannot sustain the rate at which it expended precision munitions early in the campaign against Iran.
The defense industrial base is not equipped to produce missiles rapidly enough to replenish munitions that have been fired or transferred to U.S. Central Command, which is overseeing the conflict, leaving inventories under mounting pressure even as military operations continue.
Interceptors are in heavy use to defend U.S. interests in the Gulf states, which house U.S. troops and are being targeted by Iranian drones and missiles.
One partner country told CBS News there is a need for a pause in fighting, particularly given the intensity of Iranian strikes that have been battering Kuwait and Bahrain. Kuwait said earlier this week that Iran struck its infrastructure, damaging electricity and desalination plants.
Then on July 25, from the New York Times: Trump Holds Off on Major Escalation Against Iran as Advisers Raise Concerns. The opening section:
President Trump has set aside, at least for now, plans to sharply escalate the American military assault against Iran, with particular concern that intensifying the war could dangerously drain the Pentagon’s already diminished stockpile of Patriot antimissile interceptors and other air defense munitions in the Middle East.
The threat to interceptor stockpiles is one of many considerations that have made a return to major combat operations a hugely risky endeavor, administration officials say. Mr. Trump and his top aides are also uneasy about the prospect of a widening war in the Middle East, the alienation of key Gulf allies who are vulnerable to Iranian attack, a global economic crunch, and growing energy and refugee crises.
On top of that, notice one more admission via from WW3 Watchtower on Twitter:
Two separate US leaks just confirmed the same thing: the Pentagon is letting Iranian missiles hit American bases on purpose because it has run out of interceptors to stop them.
1. The New York Times reports Trump shelved plans to escalate the Iran war after advisers warned Patriot stockpiles were dangerously low; NBC reports commanders are now ‘choosing not to intercept’ Iranian drones and missiles that look like they will miss troops. Two outlets, same admission, same week….
The Administration is in “The lady doth protest too much” mode:
𝐔𝐍 𝐀𝐌𝐁𝐀𝐒𝐒𝐀𝐃𝐎𝐑 𝐌𝐈𝐊𝐄 𝐖𝐀𝐋𝐓𝐙 𝐑𝐄𝐉𝐄𝐂𝐓𝐒 𝐂𝐋𝐀𝐈𝐌 𝐃𝐄𝐏𝐋𝐄𝐓𝐄𝐃 𝐒𝐓𝐎𝐂𝐊𝐏𝐈𝐋𝐄𝐒 𝐀𝐑𝐄 𝐒𝐓𝐀𝐋𝐋𝐈𝐍𝐆 𝐀 𝐁𝐈𝐆𝐆𝐄𝐑 𝐒𝐓𝐑𝐈𝐊𝐄 𝐎𝐍 𝐈𝐑𝐀𝐍
NBC News is reporting the Pentagon is rationing some defense weaponry amid diminishing supplies. On… pic.twitter.com/xwEOA5UdUP
— M.A. Rothman (@MichaelARothman) July 27, 2026
U.S. Central Command chief Adm. Brad Cooper assessed that in the event of a large-scale strike on Iran, the U.S. could offset its relative shortage of Patriot interceptors by severely degrading Tehran’s ability to launch missiles in large numbers at the outset, the Wall Street…
— Faytuks Network (@FaytuksNetwork) July 26, 2026
And from the Wall Street Journal in Trump Pauses Iran Strikes as Officials Weigh Dwindling Air Defense Stocks:5
The U.S. military had been poised Friday to launch an intensive series of strikes against Iran, which could have lasted up to two weeks, the officials said.
But the operation was delayed so diplomacy could proceed and as officials discussed the effect a major attack could have on the U.S.’s shrinking stocks of Patriot and other air defense interceptors. The president could still order an attack, officials said, noting that the situation remains fluid….
Trump denied that dwindling munitions are a problem, insisting in a statement to The Wall Street Journal that “we have far more munitions than anyone in the world, and far more than we need.”
As for that diplomacy…no talks with Iran are scheduled. And Iran is making mighty hostile noises. From the Aljazeera landing page:
From Aljazeera’s live feed:
- Iran says the United States is “stuck and struggling” after five months of war it began under the influence of Israel and will “inevitably pay the price”.
- The US continues to hold fire against Iran leading Tehran to halt retaliatory strikes throughout the Middle East after nearly two weeks of heavy bombing.
Iran says it hasn’t asked for a resumption of talks with US
The Iranian foreign ministry’s spokesperson, Esmaeil Baghaei, says Tehran has not requested a restart of negotiations with the United States to end the war.
“This is not war management. Repeated war crimes and boasting about them are merely attempts to escape a disaster they created under the influence of the Zionist regime, and they will inevitably pay the price,” Baghaei told reporters in Tehran.
Tensions between the US and Iran have intensified in recent weeks with Washington carrying out attacks and Tehran responding by targeting what it said were US military facilities and equipment in countries across the Middle East.
The discussions that are happening, between Iran and Oman, are not promising despite negotiators making predictable optimistic noises. From an account by Babak Vahdad on Twitter:
– According to the reports, Oman proposed the creation of a regional consortium responsible for maritime security, search-and-rescue operations and other forms of regional cooperation. Participation in the mechanism, as well as the payment of related fees, would be voluntary.
– Iran, however, is said to insist that ships transiting the Strait should pay mandatory fees and that vessels refusing to do so should not be allowed to pass. Tehran also wants maritime traffic along its coastline to be managed through a mechanism administered by Iran itself….
– The main disagreement therefore remains unresolved: Iran wants a compulsory fee system, the United States rejects any form of toll for passage through Hormuz, while Oman is attempting to find a compromise formula between the two positions.
Shorter: Iran is not budging. As we have repeatedly pointed out, Iran has no legal basis for asserting sovereignity over the Oman side of the Strait of Hormuz, but Iran is emulating the US “might makes right” mode.
And on the current state of the Strait, from Middle East Eye’s live feed:
Six vessels attempt to cross through Hormuz Strait ‘illegally and unsafely’
Iran said six vessels attempted to pass through an unauthorised pathway in the Strait of Hormuz early on Monday, state media IRIB reported based on a source familiar with the matter.
According to the source, the vessels tried to cross the southern route of the vital waterway “illegally and unsafely” after switching off their navigation and positioning systems.
Less than a dozen ships transited through Hormuz Strait over the weekend
Fewer than 10 commodity vessels passed through the Strait of Hormuz daily over the weekend, despite a pause in the exchange of strikes between Iran and the US.
According to Reuters citing Kpler, Seven vessels transited on Sunday, including three Iranian-linked oil products tankers that exited the waterway.
On Saturday, three vessels reportedly passed through.
Briefly, on the Saudi-Ansar Allah conflict:
IRGC: “Satellite images show that the fires resulting from the attacks by Yemen on the Jizan refinery in Saudi Arabia are spreading and now cover almost the entire refinery”. Confirmed by Tech Times: “The strategic trap is now complete. Saudi Arabia has spent five months… pic.twitter.com/rXCcnltXV5
— tim anderson (@timand2037) July 26, 2026
Jazan refinery still burning more than 24 hours after the Yemeni Missile strike. https://t.co/GRa3jp0Jf8
— MenchOsint (@MenchOsint) July 26, 2026
Fun fact: the biggest export from the Jizan refinery was ULSD (ultra-low-sulfur diesel) https://t.co/EwmbHvHDsp
— JustDario (@DarioCpx) July 27, 2026
As far as Bab el-Mandab transits are concerned, the Ansar Allah is allowing only already-loaded Chinese tankers to proceed. Inbound Chinese tankers are being blocked. From Lloyd’s List in Two Cosco VLCCs transit Bab el Mandeb after securing Houthi clearance:
- Two Cosco VLCCs carrying Saudi crude transited the Bab el Mandeb after securing Houthi clearance, with a third China Merchants tanker now heading south
- Chinese tankers heading to Yanbu to load remain in a holding pattern, suggesting negotiations for inbound vessels have yet to yield results
- A China-linked shadow fleet VLCC, with a history of carrying Russian and Venezuelan crude, has also entered the Red Sea northbound
The Red Sea corridor remains open at least for outbound Chinese tankers, even as the Houthi blockade continues to choke Saudi-bound traffic
On the Ukraine attack on a Iran-flagged tanker in the Caspian Sea, Iran quickly made stern statements:
Zelenskyy has attacked an Iranian commercial vessel, killing a sailor. A blatant UN Charter violation done at Israel’s behest to drag Europe into its war.
In calls with EU High Rep Kallas and FM Lavrov, made clear that what the freeloader in Kyiv did CANNOT GO UNANSWERED.
— Seyed Abbas Araghchi (@araghchi) July 26, 2026
Any attack on Iran always comes with a cost, and that remains true today; the U.S. and Israel are well aware of this.
Ukraine, too, may soon come to understand that Iran does not let actions go unanswered.
The list of those who have miscalculated continues to increase!
— ابراهیم عزیزی (@Ebrahimazizi33) July 26, 2026
Aljazeera reported that Ukraine claimed that the vessel was carrying “military cargo” to Russia:
The Ukrainian attack on Saturday caused the commercial vessel “to explode, killing one sailor and injuring several others”, according to Iran’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs.
Ukraine said it had targeted a Russian warship and vessels used for transporting Iranian-linked military cargo in the Caspian Sea. But the Foreign Ministry said Iran “has never intervened in the conflict between Russia and Ukraine”.
Former JCPOA negotiator Alan Eyre was skeptical that the Ukraine attack was more than a Trump-pleasing gesture right before Zelensky treks to Washington for the Lindsey Graham ceremonies. From Mario Nawfal’s channel:
From Eyre via a lightly edited machine transcript:
Obviously Ukraine’s got a beef with Iran. Iran’s been supplying Russia with, you know, technology with drones. And you know, again, a lot of it’s going through the Caspian. So, they knocked out this commercial, puditively commercial ship, saying it was carrying military supplies for the Russians.
But this is happening two days before Zelensky comes to the United States to meet with Trump, you know, on the occasion of Senator Lindsey Graham’s funeral. So I see this as Zelensky, President Zelensky trying to get into the US’ good graces right before a bilateral meeting by showing that unlike NATO members who aren’t going to cross the street to help the United States in its fight against Iran, Ukraine is in lock step with the United States, sees Iran as an enemy, and is, you know, is is side by side with President Trump.
But you know, Ukraine’s got a war with Russia to fight, right? …I don’t see I don’t see Ukraine spending a lot of calories trying to trying to, you know, fight Iran alongside President Trump. Now, if they if Iran keeps sending military supplies to Caspian, maybe they’ll try it again. But even Araghchi the foreign minister of Iran much like the Majlesa [sp?] representative said hey Ukraine don’t do this again.
And an update on a front that is not getting the attention it warrants: the accelerating food crisis:
____
1
BREAKING: The United States is preparing for a very large-scale military campaign against Iran, with huge numbers of U.S. KC-135 aerial refueling tankers reportedly landing at Ovda Air Base in southern Israel over the past couple of hours.
The deployments come after Donald Trump… pic.twitter.com/1n6xe07LEB
— The Hormuz Report (@HormuzReport) July 24, 2026
Retail is fading the Iran risk into the close. The desk is counting tankers.
Nearly 100 US aerial refueling tankers now sit in Israel. Another 10+ KC-135s arrived Friday evening. The Pickaxe Mountain attack is reportedly set to begin tonight as soon as markets close.
Energy…— Macro Alpha (@MacroAlphaHQ) July 24, 2026
🇧🇬🇺🇸🇮🇷⚡️ — Bulgaria’s parliament has approved the temporary deployment of up to eight U.S. KC-135 aerial refueling aircraft at Bezmer Air Base — despite an Iranian warning that the move would make Sofia complicit in “aggression and war crimes.”
➡️ The measure passed by a vote of… https://t.co/MEaNZZBDlo pic.twitter.com/QlkZtdrzmq
— Raaz News – En (@raaznewsen) July 22, 2026
2 It remains possible that God will smite him as he did Lindsey Graham. Trump has repeatedly asked for that, most recently in a June interview with Axios: “Asked what he’d learned from the war about the limits to his power, he [Trump] said: ‘There are no limits.’”
3 From Fox:
Funeral events will begin July 28 with an arrival ceremony at the U.S. Capitol. In recognition of Graham’s decades of service in the Air Force, an Armed Forces Body Bearer Team will carry his remains into the building. After the arrival, a U.S. Capitol Police memorial guard will stand watch in honor of his service in the Senate. A short program will follow in the Rotunda. The ceremony will be closed to the public, but a livestream will be available.
4 A few of many accounts:
March 27: Iran War: Trump Faffs About, Extending Deadline for Strike Threat by 10 Days as US Military and Energy/Materials Shortfalls and Shortages Expected in Weeks; Iran Allows Transit of Trapped “Friendly” Ships. This post included a summary of a detailed report by the Royal United Services Institute, Over 11,000 munitions in 16 Days of the Iran War: ‘Command of the Reload’ Governs Endurance, which included estimates of depletion date from late March to early May for critical weapons categories. That timetable was delayed by the ceasefire resulting in much less intense tit for tat exchanges.
May 9: Iran War: Iran Yet to Answer US Proposal as Recent Exchange of Fire in Gulf Exposes US Weapons Shortages; More on Poor Prospects for Global Economy, Resumption of Old Normal Gulf Traffic Levels
July 17: Iran War: What Happens When the US Hits the Limits of Escalation Options?
5 I went looking for a Truth Social tweet, and found Trump is nutter posting again. Go have a look. From a very long series:
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