Iran escalated dramatically in the Persian Gulf, Ansar Allah blasted Saudi airports and continued to advance on the ground in Yemen, and Trump threatened a major escalation before the midterms in partnership with Israel.
But before we get to any of that, the American MSM is continuing to slowly repent for repeating Trump and Hegseth’s claims early in the war.
CBS has new footage of the Iranian attack on Camp Buehring in Kuwait early in the war and it’s not quite the story Secretary of Defense War Pete Hegseth was telling this spring.
New footage obtained by CBS News shows Iranian drone strikes on Camp Buehring in Kuwait, along with the aftermath, including damaged equipment and buildings, during the opening days of the Iran war.
Three witnesses also reported seeing F-5F Tiger II fighters, or their Iranian equivalents, the Kowsar or Saeqeh, during the attacks. One witness said the fighters flew so close that he could see the pilots’ helmets.
— OSINTWarfare (@OSINTWarfare) October 7, 2026
And the NYT complains that “Trump Is Being Forced to Retreat.”
The president rightly says that Iran’s entire navy was sunk in the initial military action, and its decrepit air force is out of business. And the country is teetering on the economic edge, crippled by the naval blockade that has brought its oil exports to a trickle.
But that has not stopped the Iranians from forcing American aircraft and personnel to flee their once-secure bases — farther and farther from Iran. American personnel were evacuated from bases in Bahrain, Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates and Qatar, all of which were within Iranian missile and drone range. Some of those bases were so badly damaged that inside the Pentagon there is little interest in rebuilding them; they will be moved farther away, if Congress grants the funding.
We’ll return to Trump at the end of the post.
Iran Makes a Statement in the Gulf
Iran appears to have tired of American claims to control the Gulf.
IRGC commander’s adviser Mohammadreza Naqdi told Fars (via Reuters) the southern pathway hugging Oman’s coast will soon be closed. He said its “few routes” were made by blasting rocky passages and are used by “small boats smuggling oil and transferring it to tankers.” Quote: “The Strait of Hormuz is closed, and the armed forces of the Islamic Republic of Iran have full control over it. This situation will continue until Iran’s legitimate demands are met.”
CENTCOM rejected the claim:
🚫 CLAIM: Earlier today, a general from Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps claimed in media reports that “the Strait of Hormuz is closed” and his country has “full control over it.” This is FALSE.
✅ FACT: Traffic is flowing through the Strait of Hormuz right now carrying commercial goods and energy supplies, including 20 million barrels of crude oil. The United States and regional partners clearly control the strait.
— U.S. Central Command (@CENTCOM) October 7, 2026
The narrative war had to take a backseat to kinetic action, however.
Reuters reported that “attacks on tankers in Hormuz hit highest of any week since start of Iran war” and cited the US Navy-led Joint Maritime Information Center (JMIC).
In the week of September 28-October 5, there had been at least 12 attacks on oil, liquefied natural gas and liquefied petroleum gas tankers around the Strait of Hormuz, according to data from three maritime security sources who analysed incidents based on information received from the area.
For the first time in weeks, Iran hit a tanker hundreds of miles west of the Hormuz Strait with multiple projectiles, inflicting casualties.
Perhaps Iran had read this Bloomberg report about Qatar bringing empty LNG ships into the Gulf in a bid to boost exports.
Maritime Executive commented:
U.S. military airborne security patrols have been active in the southern reaches of the Strait of Hormuz, defending a narrow maritime corridor with some success, but American forces have only a limited presence to the west of the waterway – rendering tankers transiting off Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain and Qatar comparatively vulnerable. The U.S. Navy no longer maintains an operationally significant presence in Manama, Bahrain, former home of U.S. Fifth Fleet, and there are no U.S. surface combatants operating west of Hormuz.
Molo Monitor commented:
This represents a very clear shift in strategy by Iran. It has been a long time since they struck a commercial vessel in the Persian Gulf outside the Strait of Hormuz, signaling an expansion in the range of their attacks. The key aspect of this new strategy, however, is the intent to cause casualties rather than merely halt the vessel, indeed, in recent days, instead of targeting only the engine to stop the ship, the IRGC has been focusing on striking the vessel multiple times, specifically to kill crew members. The reason is that Iran is attempting to deter illegal ship transits, as some reports indicate that captains currently earn up to $100,000 a month by illegally passing through the Strait of Hormuz.
Bloomberg had an interesting feature (archived) giving one tanker captain’s experience in sneaking through the Strait, but that might be a tale from a time in the conflict that’s already a memory.
Tracker MerruX reported on a second tanker hit in the Gulf:
Large Oil Spill in the Gulf of Oman after a VLCC was Struck and caught Fire.
This is in the Gulf of Oman Transit lane. Not STS area off Fujairah https://t.co/0l1AMVnCdE— Ali (@MerruX) October 8, 2026
HFI Research commented:
Stationary tankers have not been attacked since the start of the Iran war. Why? This is a dramatic step up the escalation ladder. Following the heightened attacks on tankers transiting the Oman Lane in the past few days, Iran has now attacked two stationary tankers: one near Qatar and one near the Fujairah ship-to-ship hub.
The latest escalation matters because it is one step closer to escalation in Fujairah. Like the Strait of Hormuz card, an escalation to Fujairah is a card you can’t use again. Once you play it, you have to play it to the end.
The oil market implication here is that with the Oman Lane now contributing to ~14 million b/d of crude + product flow, any disruption here will immediately impact physical oil balances. Interestingly, if inefficient tanker transits shift from the oil shuttle trade to delivering crude elsewhere, tanker rates will fall, giving crude more room to rally.
Note that the Fujairah attack is unconfirmed by other sources, so HFI’s analysis might have gotten ahead of the facts. Time will tell.
Ansar Allah also seemed to feel a need to put paid to Saudi claims of having the military initiative.
Ansar Allah Blasts Saudi Airports and Seizes High Ground in Taiz
The Saudis admitted to three killed at King Khalid Airport in Riyadh and two killed and twenty-eight wounded at Abha, per Reuters.
Reuters also included the Saudi side (called “the Yemeni government” in Western MSM despite governing less than 30% of the Yemeni population) walking back their claims to have retaken Mocha:
On Monday the Yemeni government said it had reached Mocha, which sits at a junction with a supply route to the critical battleground of Taiz, but the claim had been premature, according to Yemeni military officials on the ground and analysts.
Speaking of Saudi claims that haven’t panned out, UK analyst Dr Andreas Krieg told Le Monde that Türkiye isn’t quite all-in on the Mecca Accords:
The “Mecca Pact,” the text of which remains secret, has not yet been ratified by its parliament—it isn’t even on the parliamentary agenda. While awaiting this green light, Turkish experts believe that Ankara will support Riyadh through intelligence sharing, military planning, and joint training. Turkey wants to demonstrate that the pact is working while preserving a path toward negotiation.
Mint Press News had video from the Taiz front:
🚨BREAKING: Yemen’s Armed Forces Have Established Control Of Jabal Habshi From Saudi-proxy Militias
This gives them the strategic high ground & clears the way for the total capture of Taiz City.
A huge blow to Saudi Arabia. https://t.co/o76ea0vw4X
— MintPress News (@MintPressNews) October 7, 2026
Drop Site had an interesting report on “the Shadowy Committee That Oversees the Kingdom’s Policy on Yemen” for those who are interested in the origins of the current conflict.
Michigan State’s Shireen Al-Adeimi has some interesting meta commentary regarding Al Jazeera’s coverage of the war in Yemen over the years.
But let’s look ahead a little before we call it a post.
Pentagon Tells CENTCOM To Prep
I’ve got to end on a cliffhanger.
Axios reported that the Pentagon told CENTCOM “several days ago” to finish preparing for a possible resumption of major combat operations. No date has been set, and Trump has not decided. US and Israeli sources say it could come before the US midterm elections, and possibly before Israel’s election a week earlier. Targets would be energy, infrastructure and nuclear sites, with Israel most likely taking part. Part of a Camp David meeting on Friday dealt with this. Qatari mediators are still awaiting Iran’s reply to a US counterproposal. Trump and Netanyahu spoke Wednesday, their second call in days.
Stay safe, y’all.
Follow and support my work at NatWilsonTurner.com
By
