As of the April 2026 CPI release:
Figure 1: CPI – food at home (black), January 2025 ERS forecast (inverted green triangle), January 2026 forecast (light blue square), April 2026 forecast (red triangle), all on log scale. Source: BLS, ERS, and author’s calculations.
Note that 2025 groceries inflation outstripped the January 2025 forecast, with the price index ending up 0.9 ppts higher than originally forecasted.
Some individual commodities since January 2025.
Figure 2: CPI – fruit and vegetables (green, left log scale), coffee (brown, right log scale), steak (red, right log scale), tomatoes (pink, log right scale), all 2025M01=1.0, on log scale). Source: BLS via FRED, and author’s calculations.
By
