Latest Kalshi estimates on re-opening by September 1:
Figure 1: Oil price, Brent $/bbl (black, left scale), cash NYMEX for 7/17 (gray +), and Kalshi prediction of Sept 1 re-opening of Strait of Hormuz (blue, right scale). Source: EIA, NYMEX via barchart, Kalshi.
One would think the two series would have moved inversely but until the 6th or so, they have not. That is something of a mystery.
The cash reading was for 7/16 closing (NYMEX) at $88.
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