As of today’s close:
Figure 1: Odds of Strait of Hormuz reopening by July 1, % (black, left scale); five year Treasury-TIPS spread, % (red, right scale), and DKW estimated five year expected inflation rate, % (pink, right scale). Source: Kalshi, Treasury via FRED, Federal Reserve Board, and author’s calculations.
Yves here. This New York data center ban, even if intended to be only for a year, has…
Using CPI, wage earner-CPI, CPI ex shelter, and Everyday Prices: Figure 1: Average hourly wage in 2025$ using headline…
Inflation down, but we’re still above pre-War trend: Source link
For more than half a century, arms control has been one of civilization’s principal safeguards against catastrophic war.…
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