Tons of politically motivated commentary in Canada about the implications of 2 consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth and a “technical recession” [1], even though it’s clear most mainstream economists in Canada fail to read much more into the event. I post a figure from 9 months ago, recapping the the 2024 episode in the US.
Figure 1: Real GDP from 2025Q2 2nd release (black), and 2022Q2 advance release (light blue), both in logs 2021Q4=0. EJ Antoni’s recession shaded light blue. Source: BEA via FRED, ALFRED.
The 2 quarter dip was revised away, as shown in Figure 1. In any case, there was little talk of a recession call in the face of rising strongly rising employment.
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