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There is a growing number of indications that we should consider the period we are living in as wartime. Its effects are being felt throughout the world at different intensities, and if we actually consider it wartime, many of the things that are happening make sense. This is not to say that they are justified.
The BBC published an article on the 19th of September titled “War may be coming. Are we psychologically ready?” The article suggests that governments in Western Europe—and, since it’s the BBC, referring specifically to the UK—should prepare the population for war. Despite war being expressed as a possibility in the title, the piece actually takes for granted that it will happen. However, it could be argued that we are already in it.
This is a war by the U.S.-led West to retain power against rising contenders. Europe, in this scenario, is a secondary actor to the U.S., and the war in Ukraine proves the point. These contenders have distinct interests which converge in opposing or resisting the U.S.-led West. Over the past roughly 70 years, the U.S.-led West has been dominant in finance, resource control, the military and culture amongst other fields.
This dominance is being challenged in all spheres. That’s why this war is happening across many different arenas. It’s a financial war, a trade war, a technological war, and a cultural war. The discourses emerging and the decisions being made reflect all of these and other fronts.
The opposing sides are formed, but they also evolve with the conflict. In my understanding, there’s no right side because both are pursuing the same type of worldview and hold similar agendas, even if culturally different. That’s why some say this is not an actual war, but a managed systemic transition or an iteration of the system. Perhaps. But the effects are being felt very tangibly by ordinary people. That there’s no “right side” does not mean either that there’s no side with more rights.
This war, at the moment, has two open, kinetic hot fronts and other secondary ones: Ukraine and the Middle East are the main battles, but conflicts between Afghanistan, Pakistan, and India, conflicts in Sudan, in Mali, or even in Myanmar, and the “war on drugs” in Latin America are related to it. So too are the trade war, the technological race, the sanctions battle, resource control and competition, migrant flows, and polarized cultural discourse. It is possible that other hot fronts might open between Russia and Western Europe.
What are some of the effects of these conflicts that characterize wartime periods? If we exclude those directly tied to the areas where kinetic war is happening—such as a severe increase in mortality, public health collapse, and a rise in preventable diseases—there are still many.
War radically distorts the way the economy functions, and it is undeniable that we are going through a period of economic instability and unpredictability. Markets take huge swings within a single day, and although in the U.S. they have been posting record numbers, much of this is manipulation. Few people doubt that there is a storm brewing, caused by or hidden under the AI financial bubble. Disrupted transport routes and panic buying cause price shocks in staples, fuel, and fertilizer.
In other countries that are closely connected to the U.S., such as Japan, South Korea, or those in Europe, the situation is increasingly worrying. In order to hide that these nations’ economies are shrinking, there is a growing reallocation of capital toward military development and purposes. It’s a telling sign of war when the economy becomes a war economy. This is where Europe, for example, is heading. Think of Volkswagen closing car factories and taking state contracts to build bombs.
This might create the illusion of economic growth, but only for a part of the population. The rest suffer through high inflation—even if it’s disguised—stagnation, and a rising cost of living, which is further worsened by national budgets diverting funds away from public education, welfare, and infrastructure toward military operations. The population suffers not only from falling living standards, but psychologically under the dread that what might come tomorrow will be worse than today.
War creates displacement. People flee their homes because life becomes unsustainable or dangerous. The global reach of these wars makes those flows of people move to distant places. A war in Syria creates an influx of refugees in Germany. A war in Ukraine drives people to Spain. The economic uncertainty created by disrupted trade flows and the power struggle for natural resources drives people to migrate from Africa or South America.
War also increases polarization. The need to name the enemy, to convince the public that it is a threat that needs to be eliminated at all costs, and that all resources should be dedicated to it—which comes to the detriment of the population—necessitates exaggerating the discourse. Things become black and white; you are either with us or against us. There’s no complexity. That is what is increasingly happening in public discourse throughout the West. And all those who can be labelled as enemies—first foreigners and then citizens—will be called out to be expelled or eliminated.
That also means more severe and extreme censorship. Public opinion needs to be managed; people have to believe a particular narrative, and any other narrative that doubts or contradicts it will be censored. Media will be increasingly centrally controlled or run by centralized actors. Those who do not comply with the official narrative will be shut down. Only a certain degree of criticism of war policy implementation is allowed; if you doubt the war itself or those managing it, you are an enemy.
This also leads to institutional erosion and lawlessness. Government checks and balances are dismantled, while opaque appropriations of funding and corruption flourish. Justice becomes a tool to discipline those who doubt the war’s purpose and remains favorable toward those who support it, even if they are known criminals. State bureaucracy gives priority to war efforts, and institutions become intimately tied to war, with funding and research directed toward those purposes.
War also creates scarcity, and shortages of food, fuel, and other supplies drive up prices for obvious reasons: disruption of production and supply chains, as well as countries curbing or banning exports in order to secure their own consumption needs. That means trade wars, sanctions, and state control of private companies—in some cases, full nationalization.
These are just some of the general effects that we can attribute to war and that we can expect during wartime. And all of them are taking place right now, at the same time. When one, two, or a few of them happen in isolation, they can be attributed to different causes; but when all of them are happening at once, there can only be one deduction: we are in a wartime period.
Perhaps, and hopefully, neither you nor I will have to suffer the extreme and tragic consequences of being on the front lines or close to them. But we are experiencing the consequences of war. And I think if we look at what’s happening throughout the world, especially in the West, through this lens, then it makes sense. The economic uncertainty, the shortages, the increase in the cost of living, the censorship, the capture of the state and its institutions, the political polarization, and even the lies and corruption are all part of wartime.
Perhaps war and peace are two constant dynamics, or, as Tolstoy described them, two states of mind. There are wars that happen when there is no sound of cannons, and peace can be found in the midst of conflict. I subscribe to this, but it is essential to be lucid and clear about the times we are living in, in order not to be swept along by them.
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