Immigration surged following the pandemic as the influx caught up from years of border restrictions, peaking at more than 550,000 in 2022-23, but has been steadily dropping since.
The latest figures put net overseas migration at 295,000 in 2025-26 and 245,000 in 2026-27, up from last year’s estimates of 260,000 this financial year and 225,000 in 2026-27.
It’s predicted to fall as low as 225,000 a year by the end of the decade, much closer to pre-pandemic levels.
The government put the surprising increase in net migration – a blow to its efforts to reduce numbers – down to migrants on temporary visas departing Australia at lower rates than in the past.Â
“Arrivals of New Zealand citizens are also expected to remain strong, reflecting Australia’s relatively favourable labour market conditions,” the budget papers state.
The government says its budget measures will put “downward pressure” on the figures.
They include the extension of a ban on temporary migrants buying established residential property until 2029, new targets for the permanent migration program and tweaks to working holiday visas.
The government says the permanent program will prioritise onshore applications, with 70 per cent of the 185,000 places going to skilled immigrants rather than family reunion visas.
“The government will reform the Working Holiday Maker (WHM) program to better control numbers, reduce barriers to work, provide a fairer allocation of WHM visas, and support Australia’s national interests,” the budget papers state.
It’s also doubled the visa application charge for temporary graduate visas, adding an estimated $1.2 billion to Treasury coffers over five years, but the papers don’t reference any estimated impact on numbers.
Immigration has been a hot topic in recent years, with a particular focus on housing and infrastructure levels struggling to keep up.Â
“Australia is and should always be a country where we judge you by who you are, not where you’re from,” he said.
“People say they love Australia and I do, and almost everybody on this continent does, modern Australia is what they’re loving, and we are a multicultural nation.”
Opposition Leader Angus Taylor last month promised to crack down on migration, introducing an “Australian values” test, the reintroduction of temporary protection visas, more funding to deport people and an unspecified cut to overall migration.
Incoming One Nation MP David Farley initially said a net overseas migration figure of 306,000 was probably not too high before later clarifying “One Nation will cap immigration at 130,000 per year”.
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