September CPI registered upside surprise:
Figure 1: CPI (blue, left log scale), Bloomberg y/y consensus (blue +), core CPI (red, right log scale), Bloomberg y/y consensus (red +). Source: BLS, Bloomberg.Â
The above graph uses y/y consensus; on a m/m (due to rounding), core CPI did not exceed consensus in September, while headline did.
Since the Fed targets PCE inflation, it’s useful to consider the implications for PCE. Nowcasts of inflation (orange line for headline, green line for core) picked up as a consequence of the upside surprise.
Source: Cleveland Fed, accessed 10/14/2026.
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