Preliminary at 46.3 < 47.5 Bloomberg consensus with expectations above consensus, and current conditions below. Here’s a picture of indicators, using the Cummings-Tedeschi adjusted U.Michigan series (all series standardized):
Figure 1: U.Michigan Economic Sentiment, using Cummings Tedeschi adjustment (blue), Conference Board Confidence Index (brown), Gallup Confidence (green), all demeaned and divided by standard deviation 2021M01-2025m02. Red dashed line at “Liberation Day”, purple dashed line at US-Iran war. Source: UMichigan, Gallup, Conference Board, Cummings and Tedeschi (2024), and author’s calculations.
Notice that if one does not adjust the U.Mich. series, the picture looks a bit worse.
Figure21: U.Michigan Economic Sentiment (blue), Conference Board Confidence Index (brown), Gallup Confidence (green), all demeaned and divided by standard deviation 2021M01-2025m02. Red dashed line at “Liberation Day”, purple dashed line at US-Iran war. Source: UMichigan, Gallup, Conference Board, and author’s calculations.
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