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Saudi Airports and Oil Facilities Blasted Again and Again


Yemen’s Ansar Allah pounded Saudi Arabia Saturday, injuring hundreds at the Riyadh airport but also halting flights at King Fahd airport in Dammam while rumors of hits on Saudi oil facilities ran rampant.

The attacks drew American condemnation and inspired POTUS Trump to muse that the US “may” join ongoing Saudi strikes on Yemen.

Meanwhile, a supertanker on the southern or “unauthorized” route through the Strait of Hormuz hit a mine, and 22 crew members had to be rescued by the UAE National Guard (although it might have been a separate incident, as neither report named a ship).

And oil prices moved up despite Trump’s deal with Putin for diesel fuel, due to Hurricane Isaias in the Gulf of Mexico.

Saudi Airports and Oil Facilities Hit Harder Than Ever

Saudi Arabia’s General Authority of Civil Aviation (GACA) issued a statement early Sunday saying at least 12 were killed and 309 injured at King Khalid International Airport. The dead are four Saudis, two Bangladeshis, and one each from the US, Egypt, Jordan, Syria, Palestine and Sudan. Operations at the airport were temporarily suspended.

Riyadh wasn’t the only Saudi airport hit. A projectile landed near King Fahd International Airport in Dammam, per AFP via CBS (Yemeni media claims Saudi media reported a direct missile hit, but I could not confirm that), stopping flights for an undetermined amount of time.

The Saudis did claim a ballistic missile was shot down over Al-Kharj governorate and a drone shot down over the Eastern Province.

Ansar Allah also claimed to have attacked the Ghawar field in the Eastern Province of Saudi Arabia with a ballistic missile. Ghawar is the world’s largest oil field. Kayhan reports that missiles and drones hit the Ghawar field in the Eastern Province at the same time as the airport strike. It says video from regional media shows smoke.

The Saudis Have a Lot Scheduled

The Financial Times points out (via Drop Site) that the disruption of flights into Riyadh jeopardizes their flagship summit known as “Davos in the desert,” which opens in two weeks:

Scheduled speakers include BlackRock’s Larry Fink, JPMorgan’s Jamie Dimon and Bridgewater founder Ray Dalio. Organizers told participants Friday night that the summit would go ahead as planned, with “comprehensive security measures” at Riyadh’s airports, venues and hotels. That was followed by Saturday’s attack on Riyadh’s King Khalid International Airport, the third this week, which killed 12 people and wounded 309. “We have no idea what’s going on,” an executive at one firm scheduled to attend told the FT. “It’s a very dicey situation.” Italy’s energy minister has pulled out of a ministerial energy meeting in Riyadh next week and will appear by video instead.

The Saudi capital also has a busy sports-washing schedule planned for the fall, with Riyadh Season opening 21 Oct and running for 10 weeks.

The Six Kings Slam tennis event scheduled for October 21, 22 and 24 faces security questions after deadly Riyadh airport attacks.

The Canelo Álvarez vs Christian Mbilli boxing match set for October 31st has not been cancelled.

Likewise, pro-wrestling’s WWE is returning to Saudi Arabia for its Crown Jewel “Premium Live Event” on Nov 7th. Wrestling media report the event is in question after the airport attack.

UFC Fight Night 295 is scheduled for Nov 28th as well.

Who Condemns What

The attack on the Riyadh airport inspired widespread condemnation from US Secretary of State Marco Rubio who tweeted, “The United States strongly condemns the recent attacks on the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia by the terrorist Houthis, including today’s strike on King Khalid International Airport in Riyadh that took numerous innocent lives, including an American citizen. These reprehensible attacks demonstrate a blatant disregard for innocent civilian life. They must stop now. We stand with the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and its people and extend our condolences to the victims and their families.”

The Riyadh attack inspired POTUS Trump to muse about joining the Saudis in attacking Ansar Allah, saying to CBS News, “We may. We’re gonna look at it … we’ll make a decision– we move very quickly.”

There was no comparable outpouring of sympathy over the two airport employees killed in a Saudi strike on the Sanaa airport Friday or the four more Saudi airstrikes on the airport Saturday and no mention of the fact that the current round of fighting began when Saudi-aligned forces bombed that airport in July, ending four years of truce in the conflict.

Nor did Saudi use of internationally banned cluster bombs on the villages of Bani Hatab generate condemnation in the West.

Ansar Allah’s Ministry of Health claims that 91 people have been killed and 168 injured, mostly women and children, in the Saudi aggression since the latest escalation began on September 3, but that doesn’t merit condemnation either.

The Saudi-aligned coalition claims that “136 Military Targets Destroyed in Areas Controlled by Terrorist Houthi Militia.”

The Ground War Continues

The Saudi-aligned forces are again claiming to be advancing against Ansar Allah near the Bab al-Mandeb Strait, per AFP.

The same article carries Ansar Allah’s claim that Saudi-led forces “attempted to advance from the Ras al-Ara area in Lahj governorate towards the area south of Bab al-Mandab” and were repelled outside the Bab al-Mandeb zone with heavy losses. Ansar Allah forces “maintain control over Bab el-Mandeb, Mayun Island” and the rest of the western coast.

In yesterday’s post, I reported on the Saudi ambassador’s claims that Bab al-Mandeb and Mayun were cleared of Ansar Allah forces, but today Saudi-aligned military sources told AFP the strait is not yet secured and Mayun is still held by Ansar Allah.

On the Taiz front, Ansar Allah’s governor for the region denies Saudi claims that roads to the front have been cut off.

Sanaa TV shows footage of Ansar Allah surveying occupants’ needs in newly liberated sections of Taiz:

Now let’s turn our attention to the Persian Gulf.

More Tankers Hit, More Warnings Issued

The IRGC Navy issued a statement, saying that a crude-laden supertanker on the “unauthorized route” in the Strait of Hormuz suffered “a massive explosion after hitting a naval mine in a dangerous route.”  It says the ship had turned off its navigation and positioning systems and is burning, with the fire “clearly visible to people living on the shores.”

“A terrible fire is the end result of any law-breaking tanker that attempts to ignore the security and laws in the Strait of Hormuz.”

The UAE National Guard reported that its Coast Guard answered a distress report from the crew, located the tanker, and took off all 22 crew, although it’s not clear their report refers to the same ship described by the IRGC.

Al Jazeera cites UKMTO saying an outbound tanker was hit by a projectile in the Strait of Hormuz. Master of an outbound tanker reports being struck on the port side by an unknown projectile, causing a fire on board; crew safe; damage and environmental impact unknown. None of these reports name a ship, so it’s unclear if all three reports refer to the same ship or three separate incidents.

Al Jazeera also reports that UKMTO says vessels near Ras al-Khaimah told to leave anchorages. Several masters near Ras al-Khaimah, UAE, report being “directed via VHF broadcast to move from their anchorages.” UKMTO did not say who made the broadcast; “authorities continue to investigate.”  Ras al-Khaimah is west of the Strait. Presumably the warning came from Iran.

For its part CENTCOM claims that U.S. Forces Disable Cargo Vessel Attempting to Violate Blockade. A US fighter jet struck the stern of the Panama-flagged cargo ship M/V Ocean Molica (“Arika Sun”) in the Gulf of Oman on 10 Oct with a precision munition, “fully disabling the ship’s propulsion without harming the crew.” CENTCOM says the ship had departed an Iranian port and ignored repeated warnings.

Let’s read some analysis.

Foreign Affairs Breaks With the Iran Is Breaking Narrative

I meant to include this in yesterday’s post. Narges Bajoghli and Vali Nasr of Johns Hopkins wrote a piece in Foreign Affairs that lays out Iran’s Theory of Victory: Tehran’s Fight for Great-Power Status in the Post-American Middle East based on interviews with Iranians across the political spectrum.

When it comes to Iran, the Trump administration has a decidedly dismal record. It failed to wear down the Islamic Republic with months of intense bombings. It could not bend Iran’s will at the negotiating table. Yet despite seven months of setbacks, U.S. officials believe that they have turned the page. They have implemented fresh sanctions while maintaining the existing American blockade of the country’s southern coast, throttling its access to outside commerce. As a result, they have concluded that the Islamic Republic will soon either concede or be downed. “We are going to economically asphyxiate this regime,” Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent declared on September 1.

There is no doubt that Washington has dealt significant damage to Iran. But the Islamic Republic does not believe it is unraveling. In fact, Tehran thinks that it will defeat the United States—and it isn’t hard to see why. The Iranian government did not merely survive the U.S.-Israeli bombardment. It retaliated ferociously, damaging American military bases and obstructing the Strait of Hormuz. Its people are paying a hefty economic price thanks to damage caused by the war and Washington’s cutoffs, but much of the population has rallied around the flag and seems to accept that hardship is necessary if Iran is to defend itself. As a result, Tehran has been emboldened. Its officials may not see eye to eye on each tactic. But they share the same ambitions: evicting U.S. forces from the Persian Gulf, forcing Washington to remove all its sanctions, and getting the United States to accept that Iran is a great power.

This agenda might sound overly audacious, given that Iran has been materially weakened. But the Islamic Republic thinks its aims are within reach. It believes its military can drive U.S. troops from the Persian Gulf by continuing to strike American bases directly and by getting Arab countries to push the United States to leave. It thinks that by wreaking havoc on energy markets, it can force Washington to lift economic restrictions, as well. Tehran’s theory of victory, in other words, is that it can hold out and inflict enough pain that the United States will end its containment of Iran.

The piece goes on to argue that, contra Seymour Hersh, Iran is anything but on the verge of collapse. Per the piece, Khamenei’s assassination and Trump’s threats to “blow the entire nation up” turned anger at the government into anger at Washington. Turkey planned for 70,000 refugees, but few fled, and exiles came home (singers Mohsen Namjoo and Bijan Mortazavi). Millions attended Khamenei’s July funeral.

Fifteen years of building toward sanctions resilience and near self-sufficiency in food mean no shortages of key goods so far, despite high inflation.

Ansar Allah vs. the Saudis, What Does It All Mean

Israeli analyst Danny (Dennis) Citrinowicz says:

…the Houthi attacks on Saudi airports are not merely military operations but part of a broader political and psychological strategy.

The Houthis’ primary motivation is based on a principle of blockade for blockade. The Houthis made their position very clear from the beginning: If our aircraft cannot land at Sanaa International Airport, then civilian aircraft should not be able to land at Saudi airports either.”

The Houthis are sending a clear message to Riyadh: “If Yemen remains under blockade, Saudi Arabia cannot expect to remain insulated from the consequences of the war. In other words, as long as restrictions on Sanaa Airport remain in place, Saudi civilian airports will not be able to operate normally.”

This is the first and most fundamental reason behind these attacks, and at this stage, there are no indications that they are about to stop. The attacks are intended not only to disrupt air traffic but also to undermine Saudi public morale and create psychological pressure on the kingdom.

…

These targets are not new. The Houthis have attacked Saudi airports and other critical infrastructure in the past. What has changed is the frequency and intensity of the attacks. The Houthis are now conducting attacks on a daily basis, including sustained nighttime operations. This pattern clearly represents an escalation – atacks against Aramco oil facilities, airports, and strategic infrastructure, including ports such as Yanbu, as examples of the Houthis’ broader strategy.

…Another important objective is to disrupt Saudi Arabia’s ability to export oil. The attacks are unlikely to stop, particularly as Saudi Arabia intensifies its own military operations.

One of the fundamental challenges in dealing with the Houthis is that whenever military pressure against them increases, they respond by escalating further rather than backing down.

Saudi Arabia faces a particularly difficult strategic challenge because the Houthis are unlikely to halt their attacks until their core demands are met, including the lifting of restrictions and the blockade imposed on Yemen.

…Despite having advanced air defense capabilities, Saudi Arabia has been unable to intercept every missile and drone launched by the Houthis. The recent attacks demonstrate that the Houthis still possess the capability to strike critical and strategic infrastructure deep inside Saudi Arabia.

Anusar Farooqui responded:

At least the British imperialists understood anthropology. They learned over time that agnatic descent groups, once they have been organized into a fighting resistance, simply cannot be subdued. They gave up entirely on trying to subdue them. Instead, they recruited them and bribed them to leave the Empire in peace.
…
The Saudis, in their defense, did not see the diffusion of precision-strike any more than the Americans. Now they are learning a bitter lesson. The world of one-sided imperial violence is over.

This is now the cost of imposing your will on Yemen. Deal with it. If you do not like how this is going, you are not going to like what is coming. Houthi capabilities will increase over time. They are in a period of high intensity learning. As they get more skilled and sophisticated, they will become more resilient and their strike capabilities will become more survivable.

Sue for peace. Or be prepared to pay the new price.

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