The Narrative War Over Hormuz, Meetings in NY, UAE, Riyadh

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The Trump 2.0 regime seems to be succeeding in its efforts to convince the oil markets that they have cracked open the Hormuz Strait and are escorting an ever-increasing amount of crude oil past the Iranian blockade.

For their part, the Iranian claims to have hit almost two dozen ships over the weekend have gone quiet, but the IRGC did send a letter to the American people and threats are being issued.

Meanwhile, major meetings took place in New York, Abu Dhabi, Riyadh and even London, and kino continued on the Yemeni front.

Let’s get to it.

Narrative Control Paying Dividends for Team America

Kpler’s (which Will Schryver calls “a market intel shaper” who “gives the affectation of being a fountain of objective facts”) Amena Bakr reported on the impact of the good news late last night:

Good morning. Between the big export push from Hormuz, Yanbu, the bypass pipelines, the announcement of the US SPR release and Trump telling theworld ten war will be over soon, Brent moved under 100. #OOTT pic.twitter.com/7qLqHINxRQ

— Amena Bakr (@Amena__Bakr) September 30, 2026

Not everyone is as doubtful of Kpler as Mr. Schryver:

Handy new dashboard from @Kpler on full Middle Eastern liquids flows (Hormuz, GoO STS, Red Sea, etc.).

Might also go to this latest oil market selloff given that 1) the numbers are high!, and 2) pretty well every oil trader just got a morning email highlighting this addition.… pic.twitter.com/R4oiNErcWs

— Rory Johnston (@Rory_Johnston) September 29, 2026

American analysts have been claiming the Iranians are just about finished so a deal must be in the works:

Iran used the one month pause in the blockade to export 80 million barrels of oil. The cash from those exports is about to run dry, so we’re about to see a complete meltdown in the Rial and the economy. What’s happened so far has only been the prelude…https://t.co/sqEjdJEjDx pic.twitter.com/zc7p0YsdJc

— Robin Brooks (@robin_j_brooks) September 28, 2026

This echoes Scott Bessent’s claim over the weekend that Iran only has ~15M barrels on the Oceans left to trade, and it doesn’t get more credible than Trump’s Secretary of the Treasury, now does it?

And speaking of credible, after claiming to have hit 19 ships over the weekend, Iran hasn’t claimed any strikes since.

And the hits just keep coming, with the US Dept. of Energy offering to loan 40 million barrels of oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve.

HFI Research calls this “the final TACO” and says “the timeline to push oil prices lower was the end of September into early October. In addition to the SPR release, the Trump team has attempted 3 consecutive VaR shock strategies at precisely 11:45 AM EST. While crude oil did move lower today, I think it is temporary,” and “I expect SPR flow to be 3-5 million bbls a week for the remainder of the 39.5 million bbls.

HFI also points out that reliable reverse barometer Jim Cramer is saying, “Rates not reacting right to lower oil. I think oil will be right…”

Cramer’s referring to what the WSJ called a “punishing selloff in bonds is driving Treasury yields to ever more eye-catching milestones, with the 30-year bond yield reaching a 24-year high. The slide continued Tuesday despite a decline in oil prices.”

And this despite the WSJ’s Tuesday report that “Middle East Oil Exports Rebound as Iran’s Chokehold on Hormuz Breaks Down:”

So far this month, crude exports from major Middle Eastern producers including Saudi Arabia, Iraq, the U.A.E. and others—moving through Hormuz and alternative routes—have risen to almost 13 million barrels a day. That is the highest total since February, when the region exported nearly 19 million barrels a day, according to ship tracker Huax.

Israeli military analyst Danny Citrinowicz points out that declarations of victory might be a tad premature:

The fact that Iran is losing some of its ability to control and disrupt the Strait of Hormuz does not mean that the United States has established full control over the waterway.

Ultimately, oil is a physical commodity: either enough of it reaches the global market or it does not. The fact that oil prices remain so high suggests that Washington’s significant operational achievements in the Strait have not yet translated into the strategic and economic outcome it needs.

There are simply too many additional variables. Insurance premiums remain extremely high, tanker availability is constrained, commercial shipping continues to face substantial risks, and maintaining the American military presence required to keep significant volumes of oil moving through the Strait comes at an enormous financial and operational cost.

…operational success should not be confused with strategic victory.

…

For now, neither side has full control of the Strait. Iran’s leverage has been substantially weakened, but Washington has not eliminated it. And a strategy that depends indefinitely on an extraordinarily expensive American military presence in the Gulf is not, by itself, a sustainable long-term solution.

The DOE SPR move is the concluding tranche of a deal that was made in March and seems to have been an epic success, per Reuters:

Washington agreed in March to loan 172 million barrels of oil from the SPR as part of a ​wider deal with about 30 countries in the International Energy Agency to release 400 million barrels from reserves around ​the world.

In June, the US offered to loan the last 40 million barrels from that agreement, ⁠but later that month revealed that companies only agreed to borrow about 500,000 barrels.

Energy Secretary Chris Wright said the US ​and Japan have delivered on their commitments under the agreement, but said “several European member countries have released only a fraction of ​the crude oil and petroleum products they pledged.”
…
Reuters reported on Wednesday that the White House has urged the European Union to draw down emergency diesel inventories in a bid to lower prices. The EU has not disclosed the total volumes its members have so far ​released,, although the IEA has said EU countries’ contributions will primarily take the form of refined products, rather than ​crude oil.

The amount of oil in US SPR has sunk to less than 284 million barrels, the lowest level since 1982.

Global Security says there were 132 tanker transits in the last seven days vs. a pre-war rate of ~130 daily.

But Iran is hurting too, as Drop Site News reports:

Iran’s currency fell to a record low on Tuesday, with the dollar trading above 2.5 million rials, down from about 1.7 million before the U.S.-Israeli war began in February. U.S.-Israeli attacks on the country’s energy sector knocked out about 230 million cubic meters of gas production capacity, according to Iranian government spokesperson Fatemeh Mohajerani, with efforts underway to restore roughly 100 million cubic meters.

She said the damage compounded an existing imbalance between energy supply and demand and warned that northern provinces would likely face shortages this winter. “Based on the pattern of past years, we will probably have problems in the northern provinces,” Mohajerani said.

DD Geopolitics reports that the Turks have seized an Iranian airliner in Istanbul with passengers on board, and that ain’t good news for Iran, but on the other hand, Iraq is allowing flights between Iran and the important Shia city of Najaf, per Al Jazeera.

Anusar Farooqui, aka Policy Tensor, argues that Iran won the first war in March, but is losing the second war (I wonder if he’s consciously echoing Trump and Hegseth’s claim that since June it’s a new conflict that doesn’t require congressional authorization):

The distinction that organizes everything that follows is the distinction between the war Iran won and the war Iran is now fighting. The first war was decided in March. The United States and Israel launched a war of aggression whose strategic objective was to disarm Iran, to remove it from the regional balance of power so that the region could be ruled from the air by Israel.

That offensive failed because Iranian strike capabilities proved to be survivable and reconstitutable in ways that American and Israeli planners had not anticipated, and because Iran demonstrated escalation dominance at every rung of the ladder that Washington tried to climb. This decision cannot be repealed. The United States does not have the military means to disarm Iran.1

The second war began after the ayatollah’s funeral, when Iran threw down the gauntlet, declared the game of cat and mouse on the Omani route over, and set out to compel the United States to accept exclusive Iranian authority over transit through the Strait of Hormuz. This is a different war with a different logic. The first war was a war of denial, of surviving what the enemy could dish out and making him pay for trying. The second is a matter of compellence: making the enemy do something he does not want to do.

Compellence is much harder than deterrence, especially for the weaker party. Successful compellence requires that the costs you impose be commensurate with your ask. It is against this standard that Iranian strategy has failed.

So how’s that deal with Iran coming along?

Waiting for Godot That Big Deal With Iran

Pakistan’s Dawn.com reported on the meetings in New York:

Ahead of a possible agreement over the Strait of Hormuz, both the US and Iran turned up the rhetoric against each other, with President Donald Trump once again expressing confidence that the war in the Middle East will end “very, very soon”.

Iranian state media quoted Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi as saying that he expected a formal answer on Tuesday to Tehran’s proposal to open the troubled waterway.

The remarks came as the British maritime agency reported that an “unknown projectile” struck a ship in the strait, sparking a fire on board that was subsequently extinguished.

Qatari intermediaries “presented ideas, and we discussed them; they are set to raise the matter with the American side once more, after which the final US response will be conveyed to us”, Araghchi had said late on Monday night.

Mr Araghchi, who is in New York for the UN General Assembly, said the current focus was solely on the Strait of Hormuz, and the reopening of the strait was contingent upon the fulfilment of certain conditions that they have communicated to “the other side”.

Earlier, US and Iranian officials spoke separately with mediators on Monday as part of a renewed effort to end the seven-month war, according to officials of both countries.

On Tuesday, Qatari foreign mi­n­­­i­stry spokesperson Majed Al Ansari said there had been “several meetings and messages have been exchanged, including some in New York and earlier. Current efforts are focused on building com­mon ground between the parties.”

Al Jazeera had more:

Indirect talks between the United States and Iran aimed at ending the seven-month-long war continue – most recently via Qatar as mediator on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) in New York – but the two sides still disagree about the agenda.

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi left New York on Tuesday after telling state-run Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting (IRIB) that he expects an official response to Tehran’s proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz by the end of the day. The proposal, which Iran said would see the strait reopened within seven days, was first passed to the US via Qatari mediators last week.

United States President Donald Trump was reported to have rejected that offer, under which Tehran would reopen the strait in return for Washington lifting its naval blockade, waiving sanctions, releasing an estimated $12bn in frozen Iranian assets and enforcing a wider regional ceasefire that includes Lebanon.

Under Iran’s proposal, wider peace talks, including discussions of its nuclear programme, would begin only then

Despite Trump’s public rejection, Araghchi says he has not yet received a formal response from Washington. Meanwhile, US media reports that Trump may well be willing to relax sanctions and unfreeze Iranian assets have been strongly denied by the US president.

Instead, US officials say, the US wants a deal that resolves all outstanding issues, particularly Tehran’s nuclear programme, in one go, rather than pursuing a gradual, step-by-step approach.

So yeah, there’s no deal; even Axios admits that U.S.-Iran talks yield little, raising odds of renewed combat.

How bout that letter from the IRGC to the American people?

It’s 25 pages long, is addressed to “the honorable people of the United States of America,” presented by IRGC spokesman Mohebbi in Tehran and includes the notable quotes:

• “Americans need to wake up. They need to wrest control back from corrupt politicians. Now is the time, as the American political system is at its weakest.”
• On Trump: “not only an inveterate liar but is also an insanely avaricious man.” “Remove from power the evil, deceitful, and violent politicians who are responsible for America’s current state.”
• Includes a section called “Why Is Iran the Victor?” and invites Americans to visit Iran, “possibly even the Strait of Hormuz.”

But not all the talk coming out of Iran was so friendly.

Business Recorder reported:

Iran’s chief negotiator Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf on Tuesday threatened new attacks, saying no infrastructure in the region would be safe if his country’s security was not guaranteed.

“In a region where we cannot sell oil, no one else will sell oil either; or if our security is not guaranteed, no infrastructure will remain safe,” Ghalibaf, who is also Iran’s parliament speaker, said according to a video released by state TV.

FWIW, Ali Vaez writes in Foreign Affairs of what he calls “The New Forever War“:

The United States cannot topple the Iranian regime, get it to give up its missile program, force it to abandon its nuclear program, or make it stop supporting its regional partners. But Washington can keep degrading Iran’s military and constricting its economy. Iran cannot evict the world’s only superpower from the Middle East. Yet it can keep damaging U.S. regional bases, bombing the United States’ regional allies, and disrupting international commerce.

Critically, both states have the resources needed to fight indefinitely—and both believe they have no choice but to use them.

Now I need to get back to the meetings I promised to discuss.

More Meetings: Abu Dhabi, Riyadh, London

The Abraham Accords were in action in Abu Dhabi, where Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu met all his besties on Sunday, per The Times of Israel:

During his snap Sunday visit to the United Arab Emirates to meet with UAE President Mohammed bin Zayed, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu also met with senior officials from several other Middle Eastern countries, including several that don’t have ties with Israel, the Kan public broadcaster reports.

Among the planes that landed in Abu Dhabi at the same time as Netanyahu’s visit were a government plane from Libya, a Hercules aircraft from Morocco, a military plane from Qatar and an Emirati government plane that came from Riyadh, Kan says, in a report that had to clear Israel’s military censor.

Dr. Sayed Mohammad Marandi tweeted, “Netanyahu reportedly held talks with representatives from Saudi Arabia, Morocco, Libya, Jordan, and Qatar during a UAE visit, according to Yedioth Ahronoth. The meeting was arranged by the Mossad chief after MbS requested Israeli regime assistance against Yemeni operations.”

And lips were flapping in Riyadh as well, with the FT reporting that “Saudi crown prince holds talks with senior Emirati royal in push to mend rift.”

Brit analyst Dr Andreas Krieg commented:

“Ali Shihabi, a Saudi commentator familiar with Riyadh’s thinking, said Prince Khalid’s invitation to Sheikh Mansour was “a big gesture and it shows there’s more co-ordination, particularly on Yemen”.

“I don’t think they [the UAE] will come back into the war, but Riyadh wants them to manage the southern factions so they don’t undermine the anti-Houthi front,” Shihabi said.

Krieg also commented when the meeting was announced:

The first offical meeting between KbS – strategic mind in Riyadh and lead on Yemen War – with UAE VP Mansour bin Zayed since bilateral relations collapsed in December

Several low level contacts occurred in recent weeks as UAE aligned forces in Yemen are last bulwark against the Houthis – yet most fmr UAE funded southern militias wont fight the fight in the north against the Houthis

The anti Houthi coalition needs rebuilding, while Saudi defences will be augmented by Turkey, UK, France and Pakistan

There was also a gas leak coming out of Riyadh:

Prime Minister Muhammad Shehbaz Sharif met delegation of Rothschild & Co. headed by Lord Mark Sedwill, Chair of Geostrategic Advisory in London, today. pic.twitter.com/k744BxlnhG

— Prime Minister’s Office (@PakPMO) September 29, 2026

And the Pakistani Prime Minister’s office bragged about a meeting taken in London:

Prime Minister Muhammad Shehbaz Sharif met delegation of Rothschild & Co. headed by Lord Mark Sedwill, Chair of Geostrategic Advisory in London, today. pic.twitter.com/k744BxlnhG

— Prime Minister’s Office (@PakPMO) September 29, 2026

And a British General has been getting around as well:

The British Army Chief, General Zac Stenning, met with military and state leaders from Bahrain, Saudi Arabia and Jordan in the past 48 hours. https://t.co/jQcFIANOmq pic.twitter.com/nBZXUeHqqy

— MenchOsint (@MenchOsint) September 29, 2026

Now let’s head to Yemen to close this out.

A Dab of Bab El Mendab’ll Do Ya

And speaking of perfidious Albion:

Interesting how the British refueler that was sent to help Saudi Arabia “repel houthi attacks” is always operating near the border when Saudi Arabia is bombing Yemen. https://t.co/ccQsZJQdY4

— barry with the NED (@bonzerbarry) September 29, 2026

And Nawaf Obaid, Senior Fellow at the Department of War Studies at King’s College, London, is in the pages of Al Jazeera claiming that he’s ending the Russian-Ansar Allah digital advantage in the war:

In Yemen, Iran provided the operational integration. Russian-derived intelligence was combined with Houthi tactical reporting and human access to build a detailed picture of how Tariq Saleh’s command actually functioned: which headquarters remained responsive, where reported positions diverged from reality, which formations were poorly coordinated, and where gaps existed in command, reporting and communications between the National Resistance Forces (NRF) and the Saudi-led Joint Forces Command (JFC). That picture made weaknesses along the western coastal front possible to exploit.

This is where the front broke. One command-and-control pathway connected JFC headquarters with elements of the NRF; another connected those forces with one another and with their own senior command. Once both became unreliable, inaccurate information flowed upwards while confused or manipulated instructions flowed downwards.

The consequences were specific. One NRF commander acknowledged an order to hold a blocking position and then withdrew. Another reported that a non-NRF Yemeni formation had vacated a military airfield when personnel were still there, giving commanders an inaccurate picture of where friendly forces were positioned and contributing to casualties after a strike. A Saudi special forces task force at Mokha was the first to recognise that reported force deployments no longer matched the reality on the ground.

Saudi strike missions had been prepared, but airpower could not be used freely when the locations of friendly forces could no longer be reliably confirmed. The problem was compounded when some NRF brigades discovered during activation that 50 to 60 percent of registered personnel had failed to report, despite months of JFC biometric registration, salary restoration and force consolidation. As coordination around the critical military hub of Jabal al-Nar deteriorated, NRF formations began leaving positions before the main Houthi forces had reached them.
…
The system now supporting the Houthis is far more sophisticated. Russia provides satellite-based intelligence and signals intelligence; Iran integrates that information into Houthi command and operations. But that sophistication also creates vulnerabilities: the system depends on secure communications, specialist personnel, intelligence-fusion nodes, technical advisers and continuous links between Sanaa and battlefield headquarters.

Those vulnerabilities are now being targeted. On the evening of September 19, the Iranian-led top-level command-and-control structure in Sanaa suffered a massive blow. Confirmed senior Houthi battlefield losses now include at least two major generals, seven brigadier generals and 32 colonels, many removed alongside their immediate aides, staff and communications elements. There are also strong indications that figures above the rank of major general have been neutralised within the highest levels of the Houthi command structure, together with associated foreign personnel, although those details remain deliberately withheld for now.

The effect is more important than the count. Front-line command is being systematically degraded while senior command nodes in Sanaa are simultaneously coming under precise JFC air strikes, disrupting the chain between intelligence collection, decision-making, targeting and execution. Headquarters forced to relocate, surviving commanders attempting to reconnect with subordinate units and remaining junior Iranian advisers establishing alternative pathways all generate fresh signatures that can be detected, correlated and geolocated.

If you can’t trust a Kings College grad, who can you trust?

Yemeni activists have a different take on recent Saudi targeting:

🇾🇪|The Governor of Taiz walked into the ruins of the central market. What he saw was something Saudi Arabia wanted the world never to see.

He walked through the market. He walked past stalls shattered by F-15s. He walked over ground where the blood had not yet dried. He walked… pic.twitter.com/9IawwN5PFz

— Aprajita Nafs Nefes 🦋 Ancient Believer (@aprajitanefes) September 30, 2026

And perfidious Pakistan:

Pakistan’s top Muslim cleric declares Houthis NOT MUSLIM at a Saudi Arabia conference

‘Houthis have no connection whatsoever to Islam

Anyone who opposes Saudi Arabia is an ENEMY TO ISLAM and ALL MUSLIMS’ — Hafiz Muhammad Tahir Ashrafi, head of Pakistan Ulema Council pic.twitter.com/uaOG92znBN

— RT (@RT_com) September 29, 2026

Meanwhile the Yemenis are counting coup and naming names of Saudi soldiers they claim to have killed in recent days:

Dozens of Saudi officers and soldiers have been killed in Yemeni missile attacks targeting the Al-Tawal camps in Jizan and a camp in Najran over the past three days. pic.twitter.com/QCk6FTJoBM

— Oday (@o_d__ay) September 29, 2026

Drop Site confirms:

🇾🇪 An Ansarallah ballistic missile struck a Saudi-backed Homeland Shield Forces military camp in the Al-Qawah area on the southern Yemeni coast today. Pro-PLC OSINT accounts report that nearly 20 soldiers and officers are believed to be among the dead and wounded.

In a separate… pic.twitter.com/8sK2XoRXT9

— Drop Site (@DropSiteNews) September 29, 2026

That’s all for today. Stay safe, y’all.