That halt of hostilities did not last long.1 I expected Israel to defy Trump and again strike Lebanon, but did not expect it to happen this fast, as within the same news cycle in which Trump claimed he told Israel that it was on its own if it hit Lebanon again and incredibly tried denying that Netanyahu had defied him in launching the last round of attacks.
As we will unpack soon, this predictable raised middle finger to Trump hopelessly sinks what little prospect there was of a “deal” even though too many people will keep carrying that corpse around.1 Iran needs to have some evidence that the US can constrain Israel. That is simply na ga happen.
As we will also discuss, the considerable discussion of the idea that the Russia and/or China might midwife a new security architecture for the region is way behind the pace of events. The US was able to impose its post World-War II order due to being the dominant industrial power and once-powerful European powers being prostrated (or in the case of the UK, severely depleted) by the war. Iran with its allies, most notably the Houthis, will be able to impose a new order in the region via having sufficient control over the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab el-Mandeb strait. If they can continue to deny transit to petroleum and gas exporting Gulf nations, it will be able to force them to adopt at least Austria-style neutrality as a condition of passage. That among other things means no US bases.
That is why the US is still trying to impose its blockade and engaging in dust-ups with Iran near the Strait of Hormuz. It is demonstrating that Iran does not sufficiently control the area of the Strait of Hormuz to assure safe passage to the Gulf states that Iran ultimately needs to peel away them from the US. But of course, neither does the US.
The wee problem is that the US has means to continue this standoff after the point when the global economy starts to come apart in a big way. So will Mr. Market or domestic forces get Trump to blink before there is severe and lasting damage?
First to the kinetic updates. From Aljazeera’s live feed, which as of 5:15 PM EDT carries the headline Iran war live: Israel bombs Lebanon after Trump warns Netanyahu to stop:
- US President Donald Trump says he’s in the “final throes” of a peace deal with Iran after a dangerous escalation with Israel and suggests an agreement will be done in days.
- Israeli forces kill eight people in Tyre city after issuing forced displacement orders as it continues deadly attacks on southern Lebanon ignoring Trump’s warning to halt strikes.
Israel officials had already said that attacks would resume soon:
⚡️ Channel 14 Hebrew:
A senior official in the Israeli security system estimates tonight that a return to a violent and intense round of fighting with Iran is a matter of a short time, and may occur within the next few days.
– Maintaining a state of alert and maximum readiness…— Middle East Observer (@ME_Observer_) June 8, 2026
Keep in mind that CNN just reported 37 – that’s how many times Trump has claimed to be close to Iran deal.
Germane entries in the Aljazeera live feed:
- Israel’s ambassador to the US, Yechiel Leiter, said negotiations between Washington and Tehran have “nothing to do with Lebanon”, accusing Iran of trying to connect the two issues. Speaking to Fox News, Leiter said Israeli operations against Hezbollah are separate from the US-Iran talks and warned that “Lebanon will not have a future if it remains linked to Iran”.
- Analysts say Israel’s decision to launch new strikes on Iran despite Trump’s calls for restraint was intended to signal to the US that no lasting agreement with Tehran can ignore Israeli interests. Military historian Danny Orbach said the strikes were a message to Washington that Israel retains the ability to disrupt negotiations if it believes its security concerns are being overlooked.
Another reading on the US-Israel dynamics, before Israel resumed its attack on Lebanon, from the Financial Times in Who calls the shots? Trump and Netanyahu clash over diverging goals:
“I call the shots. I call all the shots. [Netanyahu] doesn’t call the shots,” Trump exclaimed in an interview with the FT on Sunday. Would Netanyahu ultimately have to accept a deal with Iran? “He won’t have a choice.”…
A US defence official on Monday said American forces had not joined Israel’s attacks on Iran over the previous day, in a sign of Washington’s displeasure at the last strikes on Lebanon and Iran. The official said the US did launch interceptors to defend its troops in Israel, however….
But despite the friction, there is scant indication that Trump is prepared to deploy stronger leverage, such as denying US military aid to Israel…
Polls suggest a majority of Israelis favour continuing the fighting with Iran, with most believing that the country has failed to achieve its goals. A survey by the Institute for National Security Studies last month found only 37 per cent of the population was satisfied with the results so far.
In the “Kill me now” category, see the BBC video, Trump tells BBC Netanyahu did not defy him.
Keep in mind that Trump made his attempts at stand-down orders to Netanyahu over the weekend and then on Monday. That timing means was unlikely to yet have gotten enormous and predictable pushback from the Israel lobby and billionaire Zionists and evangelicals.
On top of that, Israel could still defy the US even if Trump were to do something wildly out of character, which is to show a bit of courage and start to meter down Israel access to intel or weapons supplies. He could also tell the Gulf states to deny Israel use of their airspace (recall that the latest attacks on Iran were from standoff distances, using Iraqi and Saudi airspace).
But Israel was born as a terrorist state and can still fall back on that even if the US were to try to clip its wings.
And dream if Israel will fall into line. It never does, as this anecdote from former CIA officer John Kiriakou, in a talk with Thom Von, illustrates:
From a mildly-cleaned up machine transcript:
Kiriakou: So, the Iraqis have electrical towers like we have everywhere, but ours have four legs and the Iraqis have three legs. So, just a few days before we attacked Iraq, at that time I’m the I’m the executive assistant to the deputy director for operations at the CIA. So, it’s the most serious job I ever had in my life.
Von: So, you have access to a lot.
Kiriakou: Literally everything.
Von: Wow.
Kiriakou: And the Israelis come to us and they said, “Listen, you guys are going to attack Iraq in a couple days. We want in.”
We said “Absolutely not. We put this coalition together with all these Arab countries. As soon as you guys jump in, all the Arabs are going to drop out. Just let us do it.”
Next thing you know, every one of these electrical towers just begins to topple over like 150 miles worth in the Western Desert because somebody put explosives on just one of the three legs.
And I remember my boss saying, “These damn Israelis, they just can’t leave well enough alone.”
“They just don’t ever do as they’re told.”
This Janta Ka segment gave a fine overview of the state of play right before the new strikes. A key section that bears on the current discussion is the full clip of Tom Massie describing the Israel attack on the USS Liberty in detail, starting at 15:15. The details are harrowing:
Trita Parsi2 provided a key bit of information in aside in a talk with Owen Jones. Keep in mind that this was recorded before the latest Israel attack on Lebanon:
From a lightly cleaned-up machine transcript:
Hormuz traffic remains constrained
Strait of Hormuz transit activity remained constrained over 5 to 7 June, with only eight monitored crossings across commercial and non-commercial traffic. The total was one below the single-day count on 4 June and 14 below the previous weekend,… pic.twitter.com/41cpmoF8Qf
— Kpler (@Kpler) June 9, 2026
Spot on: “That tells me @LukeGromen is right, and all the oil traders, who are not admin insiders, are sitting on the sidelines because they are tired of being front-run by insiders, which, to be clear, is not healthy for a market because it effectively acts as a price control.” https://t.co/NNNIFxtD7q
— JustDario (@DarioCpx) June 9, 2026
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1 For the record, from PressTV in PressTV Iran announces suspension of operations after ‘painful response’ to Zionist regime
Iran’s Khatam al-Anbiya Central Headquarters has announced the cessation of military operations against Israel, stating that a “painful response” has been delivered to the Zionist regime in support of the oppressed people of Lebanon.
The headquarters said in a statement on Monday that the halt comes after Iran’s powerful armed forces delivered a response to the “atrocities and mischief” of the “savage Zionist regime” in southern Lebanon and the Dahiyeh district, which were carried out with the support of “criminal America”….
The announcement follows a series of missile strikes by the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC) on Sunday targeting Israel’s Ramat David Air Base in northern occupied territories.
The IRGC said the operation was in response to Israel’s “widespread crimes” in southern Lebanon, including the killing and displacement of civilians, and that the air base had served as the origin of aggressions against Lebanon.
On Monday, the IRGC struck Israel’s strategic Nevatim and Tel Nof airbases in northern occupied territories after Israeli aggression on several Iranian cities.
Iranian officials have repeatedly insisted that the ceasefire between Iran, the United States and Israel that took effect on April 8 was conditional on a truce on all fronts.
However, Israel, with a US greenlight and the silence of international organizations, has continued its “malicious actions” against the Lebanese people on a daily basis, committing war crimes by using banned weapons, including phosphorus bombs, Iranian officials say.
The headquarters emphasized that while operations have been halted, “much more intense and crushing measures than before” will be taken if aggression and mischief, including in southern Lebanon, continue….
He [Brigadier General Ebrahim Zolfaghari, a senior commander in the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC) and the spokesman of the Khatam al-Anbiya Central Headquarters] also issued a stark warning to the United States and Israel, saying “criminal America and the brutal Zionist regime must know that a strong and proud Iran and the honorable resistance forces in the region will stand firm under any circumstances and against any threat, and will never bow their heads in surrender to the losing enemies of war”.
“If aggression and mischief continue, they will be dealt with even greater intensity,” he added.
2 A cinematic version of what that looks like:
2 It is puzzling to see Trita keep saying that Iran is insisting on getting $12 billion of its frozen assets as a condition of entering into the memorandum of understanding when a top Iran official publicly said on June 6 that the price of entry was $24 billion:
Mohsen Rezaei, military adviser to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei, told CNN that a potential peace deal between Iran and the United States is currently blocked, and that this deadlock can only be broken by the Trump Administration agreeing to release $24 billion in… pic.twitter.com/kKInFE1hhn
— OSINTdefender (@sentdefender) June 5, 2026
Obviously, Trita is hearing something different from his contacts….who are intermediaries, not principals. It is not uncommon in negotiations for those trying to broker a deal to get ahead their principals.
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